Rumors, Murmurs

1. Might Congressman Cao be switching parties?

There is confirmed chatter amongst local Democrats that this may be in the works. It would certainly make things interesting and might help Cao emerge out of a primary if other contenders end up beating up each other instead of the incumbent. Really, though, I'm not sure there's much of anything Cao can do in one direction or another to retain his seat. It certainly helps to vote in the interests of the district, as he did when he finally voted for healthcare reform the other day. If Cao departs from the GOP, it would certainly feed into the GOP purge narrative that Democrats are keen on playing up.


2. What is Karen Carter Peterson up to?

She's definitely running for Congress but won't announce until after the Mayor's race or even later. The Chairman of the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee, James Gray, has already seemingly endorsed Cedric Richmond. This is of particular interest because Gray is the father of State Senator Cheryl Gray Evans, who is Karen Carter Peterson's BFF. That could make things weird. And what does this say about Cheryl Gray Evans ambition, or lack their of, for higher office? The KCP development may contribute to the reasons why we're not seeing the local Democratic establishment follow the lead of national progressive organizations and the Obama administration in praising Congressman Cao's vote for healthcare reform.


3. Is State Sen. Ed Murray really a front-runner for Mayor?

Yes, just take a look at his fundraising totals for the quarter. For the lazy, that's nearly six hundred grand. We'll get a better sense of what's going on after the official deadline for campaign finance reports later this week.


4. Might we find someone other than Charlie Melancon to run for Senate?

A trustworthy reader wrote the old gmail account about State Senator Eric LaFleur:

E:

He'd be the best candidate of the bunch. But his wife is pregnant with their second child, and she's due either this month or next. I don't think he'll be throwing his hat in the ring. It totally sucks, but I'd love to see Charlie get cold feet, which may be the only thing to make him reconsider. I think he's the Louisiana version of Obama ... young State Senator that gets young folks totally invested in government/politics again.

Not sure there will ever be such a thing as the Louisiana version of Obama but I'd love to hear more about Senator LaFleur.

"It's really tacky and the Legislature should change it."

Couldn't say it any better myself.

Will anyone in the Legislature from New Orleans step up to the plate?

Anyone?

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Gotta give it up to the T-P's Kate Moran for an excellent piece profiling a filing loophole that helps really rich d-bags avoid accurate property tax assessments. People like celebrity personal injury attorney Morris Bart are not paying their legal fair share and it's a bunch of BS.

State law requires buyers and sellers of real estate to include the price of their transaction on the deed, but consumers wanting to shield their personal business from neighbors, employers or former spouses sometimes skirt the requirement by entering a nominal sum such as that

The practice creates a minor headache for real estate agents, who like to keep up with price trends in different neighborhoods, and a more serious conundrum for property tax assessors, who rely on the sale price to determine the fair market value of a home. It can also lead to inequities in tax assessments.

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Personal injury attorney Morris Bart and his wife purchased their home on Audubon Place for $4.5 million in 2007, a price that was likewise not disclosed on the deed. Sixth District Assessor Nancy Marshall valued the home at $3.29 million, a figure she said was based on the prevailing price per square foot in the gated subdivision. Bart's law office said he was traveling and could not be reached for comment.

It's a totally stupid loophole. The costs totally outweigh the benefits and it needs to be closed. Seems like a no-brainer.

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The best part of the article described an effort to close the loophole from the recent past:

Early this decade, the assessor in Lafayette led a push for the Legislature to create such a disclosure. The assessor, Conrad Comeaux, said the effort failed because legislators could not decide who would pay for processing the form or who would enforce its filing. Clerks of court did not want to perform the job on behalf of assessors, and many assessors felt their offices did not have the money or the staff to handle more paperwork.

I'm having a hard time describing how I feel about that paragraph. In many ways, it is emblematic of Louisiana politics and Louisiana media in that it glosses over a totally ridiculous and incredible example of governmental incompetence as legitimate or quotidian. I mean how hard is it to determine who is responsible for filing a paper form. A paper form!!! It's one of those things that you accidentally stop getting angry about the longer you follow Louisiana politics. It's not like there are plenty of other ridiculous examples from plenty of other ridiculous states but there's a certain special frequency in Louisiana. . . You know what I mean?

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Anyway, now that everything is filed electronically we won't have to have a childish turf war over who has to file the paperwork, right? So closing the loophole that protects rich people from paying their proper property tax should be relatively easy, right? Anyone want to step up to the plate and offer this in the Legislature? Any legitimate reason to keep the system as is?

Moronic Republicans Attack Melancon For Being Useful Congressman

Future Senator Charlie Melancon recently commented on first-class dummy Rush Limbaugh and the second-class dummies on Capital Hill for whom El Rushbo acts as pied-piper. The T-P:

Rep. Charlie Melancon, D-Napoleonville, was saying last week that he can understand why some, including all House Republicans, opposed the giant stimulus package now awaiting President Barack Obama's signature. "What I don't understand are people like Rush Limbaugh saying he hopes this president won't succeed," Melancon said, just before casting the only Louisiana House vote for the nearly $790 billion package of new federal spending and tax cuts. "Because if President Obama fails on the economy, we all fail, and a lot of Americans will continue to suffer."

Rep. Melancon gets it. He sees how this recession threatens the basic well-being of working Americans, recognized how the stimulus bill would benefit Lousiana residents and businesses, and worked to maximize the bill's benefits for the state. Then he voted for it.

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And then there's Roger Villere, Chairman of the Louisiana GOP. From the same T-P roundup:

Republicans are giving Rep. Charlie Melancon, D-Napoleonville, a hard time about traveling to Europe this weekend with other House members to meet with NATO allies. Louisiana Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere said instead of going on a junket, Melancon should have been in his district explaining why he voted for what Villere labeled a pork-laden stimulus bill. Melancon spokeswoman Robin Winchell said Melancon, who thinks the stimulus bill will help put many unemployed Louisiana residents back to work, believes it's critical to work with European allies to get more support for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan. And with the economic crisis affecting the entire world, Melancon wants to discuss the issue with NATO members in Europe, Winchell said. Melancon's wife, Aleida, will be accompanying Melancon, as will other spouses of House members, but she will be paying her own way, including all meals, Winchell said.

That Villere is trying to paint the stimulus and Melancon's yea vote as a political liability seems questionable given the bill's relative popularity and the emergency needs here in Louisiana, but at least it's somewhat explicable in the context of generic conservative talking points.

What I don't get is why they're also criticizing him for engaging in critical international diplomacy. Where I come from, asking NATO for more support in Afghanistan is a good thing for a Congressman to do. To me, that's supporting our troops.

An example of a foolish trip out of district would be when Steve Scalise went to Alaska to meet with a bunch of oil executives for a photo-op at the same time a Congressional delegation was touring the New Orleans area to examine recovery issues. Wouldn't it have been nice if he'd been around to advocate for the needs of his constituents instead of the impulses of his campaign donors?

Then again, the GOP's got BIG plans:

SCHIP!

A senate-amended bill to fund the state children's health insurance program went back in front of the House. It passed easily. Louisiana Congressmen were consistent in their positions from when the original House version passed.

Yeas: Melancon, Cao

Nays: Scalise, Flemming, Boustany, Alexander, and Cassidy


Thus far, SCHIP has been the only policy on which Joe Cao has bucked his GOP overlords.

What Is Bill Cassidy Saying?

The House version of the stimulus bill passed yesterday and included something in the order of $5 billion for the state of Louisiana. Big chunks of that are going to go toward state highway projects and existing Army Corps projects.

I'm also happy to report that Louisiana schools will see a big infusion of funding.

There will be some help for our public transit system, but nothing in the order of what the RPC and the City proposed. This is regrettable given the needs here but considering how little advance planning officials did in anticipation of this stimulus money, Louisiana came away with a respectable haul with perhaps the least amount of Congressional support out of any state in the country. Besides Charlie Melancon and Mary Landrieu, the Louisiana Congressional delegation has tried to obstruct the flow of money to our state. Not one Louisiana House Republican crossed over to support the bill and Vitter has positioned himself as the most belligerent and reactionary member of the Senate.

Congressman Bill Cassidy of the 6th Congressional District had an interesting rationale for his nay vote yesterday. Try to wrap your mind around this.

Cassidy voted against a massive stimulus bill that would send checks to working families, build infrastructure, and cut business taxes because...

A better bill, Cassidy said, "would focus on providing tax relief for working families and small businesses and strengthening our infrastructure."

Wow, what a stickler for progressive principles! I agree, this bill should have had more infrastructure spending and more tax relief for working class families. Who said Don Cazayoux would have been a better Congressman?

Stimulus: Crossing Our Fingers

I've tried to stay on top of the New Orleans implications of the big federal stimulus bill being negotiated in Congress. When I last broached the topic, I discussed the competing asks coming from the state and municipal levels.

Under a directive from Governor Bobby Jindal, the Department of Transportation and Development released an approximately $1.4 billion plan that is almost entirely comprised of major highway expansion projects outside of Orleans Parish. DOTD Secretary Ankner is on the record saying that the state is really only expecting to receive something in the ballpark of $400 million from the feds.

That's not very much money at all, and almost none of it would go to New Orleans, you know, the place with the most crippling infrastructure needs in the United States of America.

But as it turns out, New Orleans has come up with it's own ask. I alluded to the competing plan by the Regional Planning Commission, Regional Transit Authority, and the City of New Orleans.

Here are some more details:

Total ask: $6.3 billion
Estimated "shovel ready" spending for 2009: just under $1 billion.

First up is public transportation, where we request a total of half a billion dollars,

This portion of the draft document proposes seven streetcar projects, including:

-extending the Carrolton ave. line to connect to the Canal st. line
-extending the riverfront line to Jackson Avenue, building a new line north along Jackson Ave to St. Charles
-extending the riverfront line to Poland Avenue, building a new line along Poland from the river to St. Claude
-building new line to link union passenger terminal to Canal
-new line from Canal to Elysian Fields along N. Rampart and then from N. Rampart to the river along Elysian Fields
-a new line along convention center boulevard
-a new line connecting Canal all the way to Poland Ave, perhaps extending the proposed line along N. Rampart all the way down St. Claude

Also there is several tens of millions of dollars in spending proposed to build Bus Rapid Transit lines from the CBD to N.O. East and Algiers as well as for shelters, new buses, kiosk technology, etc. etc.

Then there's what is known as 'infrastructure resilience' spending, which actually comprises close to half of the city's total request. This includes an ask of $2.5 billion to supplement efforts to replace our sewer lines and pipes and half a billion to bury electrical and telephone wires.

Another section details our requests for regional rail spending, about $1.2 billion. There's a 450,000,000 request for a light rail line from downtown New Orleans to the airport. The city also proposes high speed rail connections to Baton Rouge, Mobile, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Hattiesburg, and Meridian.

Then there's just over a billion dollars proposed for "pedestrian enhancements" like new sidewalks, curbs, gutters improved drainage systems, street lights, trees, crosswalks, etc.

What else?

$120,000,000 for airport improvements
$240,000,000 for road repaving in Orleans Parish
$65,000,000 for bicycle infrastructure

Of course, all amounts are approximated and project details are heavily annotated.

But after a quick browse, it's a pretty solid package. I'm not sure what's "shovel ready" for 2009 but it's not hard to imagine how helpful these projects would be for our short, medium, and long term regional health.

Just think if all we got funded out of this was half of the proposed streetcar lines and half of the proposed sewer replacements. Even that would be an extremely significant, if not a game-changing investment.

I'd been wondering why it was that the city of New Orleans and the RPC were putting out a plan that would compete with the state plan, why the DOTD plan didn't just include our region's requests.

It turns out that this was by design - as a result of lobbying by the Mayor - to counteract what might happen if states were not given strict guidelines on how to allocate federal money. This was something discussed within the US Conference of Mayors, so I don't mean to insinuate that Nagin just invented the strategy out of thin air.

In fact, it would appear that the USCM thinks that a lot of the infrastructure money in the stimulus bill can and will be funnelled directly to cities and regional planning organizations through existing programs like CDBG.

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I have also heard from a couple of different sources that, to a significant extent, the amount of stimulus money allocated for New Orleans depends on the lobbying efforts of folks like Karen Carter Peterson and Desiree Glapion Rogers instead of the Louisiana Congressional Delegation.

My question now is why our Congressional Delegation isn't up to bat for us. Is it just because New Orleans doesn't have political clout within our state delegation? Or is it because Congress in general isn't actually doing much "earmarking" of the package?

I have some theories but I'd like to know what you guys think...

Lobbyists Get the Memo

No "pork" in the stimulus bill means no "pork" in the stimulus bill.

"Somebody's going to earmark it somewhere,"

Something for New Orleans to keep in mind.

Infratructure and You: City v. State

Following up from earlier...

Bobby Jindal was early proponent of a possible infrastructure stimulus package. Here's what he had in mind in December:

At a news conference before leaving for the Philadelphia meeting, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said he would like to see more federal investment in coastal restoration projects, barrier island recovery efforts and the project to close the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet. He also listed hurricane protection and levee projects in Jean Lafitte and the restoration of a Charity Hospital medical complex in New Orleans as priorities.

"There are literally billions of dollars that can be pushed through the pipeline that have already been allocated by Congress that have yet to come to our communities, that have yet to come to our state, " Jindal said, before leaving for the summit with Obama.

"I think it's unprecedented for a newly elected president to sit down with Democratic and Republican governors, " Jindal said. "We're going to have the opportunity to share with him what's going on in our states and make some recommendations to his administration so they can hit the ground running."

The Times-Picayune made it seem as if Jindal would be making hurricane protection and coastal restoration the centerpiece of Louisiana's ask. We also know that the funding shortfall for the LSU/VA hospital development is a big priority.

Jindal has remained in control of the state's stimulus strategy. He held a press conference announcing the state's priorities last weekend. The article only briefly summarizes what might be in Louisiana's request but there are some interesting things to infer. For one, many of the things that Jindal has put on the table are not actual infrastructure projects. In no order, some examples of that from the article include:

- aid to farmers who experiences losses from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike

- "removal of red tape for local governments negotiating with [FEMA]"

- "changes to the Medicaid financing formula for states affected by disasters"

For flood protection, the article alludes to the Governor's desire to address the issue but the only concrete measure that gets fleshed out is the long-requested rule change that would mandate the Army Corps to use materials collected from dredging for existing coastal restoration projects.

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So what is actually concrete?

Highways. We can build highways.

"I'll make the case that projects like I-49 north should be a priority for his administration.

I will personally be advocating to President-elect Obama that this project be included in the stimulus package that the federal government is hoping to get done by Jan. 20 at the latest next year."

In fact, the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development has been hard at work in anticipation of a federal infrastructure bill since summer.

DOTD started compiling a list in August - three months before the presidential election - because "I assumed that whoever was elected president was going to have to do something like this," Ankner said. "But I didn't think it was going to be this big."

Because of DOTD's planning, it was one of the first states to submit a proposal and one of only three states that included a separate plan for improving ports and airports, too.

The list of projects comes out to a price tag of $1.314 billion. But Secretary Ankner is setting lower expectations:

“I think $400 million is a good number for us to think about,” Ankner said.

We know that finishing the I-49 project around Shreveport and renovating I-12 and I-10 around Baton Rouge are major state priorities. In the metro area, we know that there are projects already underway on I-10 in Jefferson Parish that have made it on the list. What's going to be left over for New Orleans?

If you browse the actual DODT list, next to nothing. Though measures improving highways in Jefferson Parish will have a direct impact on Orleans Parish, the absence of money for New Orleans is striking. There's $7 million proposed for improving an access road at Louis Armstrong International and $10 million proposed for improving the Crescent City Connection ferry terminals. The DOTD also proposes spending $30 million to help the RTA do "preventative maintenance."

Part of the issue, I suppose, is that only a small percentage of the projects in the city are "shovel-ready." The Obama administration apparently favors projects where construction can begin immediately and be completed within the next 2-3 years. This, they say, will maximize the extent to which federal spending stimulates economic growth over the short term.

I've argued that those strings shouldn't be attached when it comes to allocating resources to New Orleans because of the last administration's broken promises and our city's sobering list of imminent needs. Given the political opportunity, it makes sense to approach the infrastructure stimulus as an opportunity to secure money that might not be available at any other time. Whatever limits the Congress or the President want to attach to how that money is allocated by local officials are more than fine with me. The important thing is getting the money through Congress, especially since it isn't at all clear when or if New Orleans might get its own turn at the top of the docket or if there will be any political will to allocate resources when or if that time comes.

In fact, I have recently learned that New Orleans, the Regional Planning Commission, and the RTA are indeed drafting their own list of smart-growth transportation infrastructure projects totalling a very large number. It will be very interesting to see how the Louisiana Congressional delegation reconciles competing lists.

Other state agencies will be submitting their own recommendations for stimulus dollars. We should be careful to monitor those also.

I don't like this process at all. There is very little information in the public domain and it doesn't seem like the local professional media is particularly curious.

Am I overstating the local implications of the stimulus? Why isn't all of this a much bigger deal in the papers?

Infratructure and You: Stimulating Strategies

I've been interested in the Louisiana implications of the mega economic stimulus package currently being negotiated in Congress. I think it's a very very big deal and believe it's something to which we need to be paying better attention.

When was the last time the federal government sunk so much money into infrastructure projects?

Louisiana and especially New Orleans have incredible infrastructure needs that directly impact the basic premise of 'recovery.' If this state doesn't quickly reimagine it's transportation and hurricane protection blueprint, arguments for rebuilding hinging on long and medium term economic viability go completely out the window. SE Louisiana simply will not remain a sustainable place in which to invest (whether we're talking about starting a business or purchasing a home) unless some of our major infrastructure flaws are fixed. The case for levees is indisputable. To a certain extent, even our social needs (housing, literacy, health care, education, criminal justice reform) are more easily understood. Less often articulated are our needs related to sewerage, the power grid, regional rail, and municipal transit - other areas in which SE Louisiana remains far behind other metropolitan competitors.

It has been many years since these types of projects have been on the table in Washington. This is a rare opportunity. It is not obvious to me that Louisiana will have many other chances to come away with globs of money as sizable as what might be possible right now. Barack Obama made some campaign promises on Gulf Coast Recovery but I'm not sensing much Congressional urgency in terms of allocating additional resources this way. The President has said that there will be no pork projects in this stimulus bill. But if there's a little extra money sprinkled into Louisiana for projects critical to issues of hurricane recovery and basic regional sustainability (and therefore, national security), well I don't see why we have to call that pork. It's not as if Congressman Cao and Senator Vitter are negotiating an extra $2 million allocation for the New Orleans Madam Museum. We're the poorest city in the poorest state in the poorest region and then we got hit with a bunch hurricanes and a federal flood. We need and deserve a little extra attention. That's how progressive values work.

So what is Louisiana's strategy for shaking loose that extra coin?

More later.

SCHIP in da House!

Today, the House of Representatives passed a $33 billion expansion for the State Children's Health Insurance Program, or SCHIP. In 2007, Bush vetoed this spending and Democrats came just short of overriding it.

Now, things have changed.

SCHIP should sail through the Senate and Obama will sign it the moment it's on his desk.

And millions of kids will have health insurance as a result. This is good.

More specifically, the SCHIP program helps get coverage for kids that aren't quite poor enough to qualify for Medicaid (presumably because their parents work) but too poor to buy private insurance. This could help 7 million kids around the country.

So how did the Louisiana Congressional Delegation vote?

1. Scalise: The sleaze votes against helping the children by voting no.

2. Cao: His vote on the Ledbetter Act was a major disappointment. But lo and behold, he bucked the caucus on this one and voted aye.

3. Melancon: The only Louisiana Democrat in the House votes as he should, aye.

4. Fleming: Freshman Republican votes against health coverage for children, no. Nice to meet you John Fleming.

5. Alexander: Alexander switched into the Republican Party in 2004. They can keep him. He voted no.

6. Cassidy: Bill Cassidy's victory over Don Cazayoux this past November was a minor tragedy for this state. Cassidy voted no, against providing health care coverage to needy kids.

7. Boustany: GOPer follows the reactionary herd, votes no on health insurance for children.


To recap:

Good: Cao, Melancon

Bad: Scalise, Fleming, Alexander, Cassidy, Boustany

Result: In one of the nation's least healthy and poorest states, the elected representatives from Louisiana voted 5-2 AGAINST providing health care to poor children. Luckily, it looks like thousands of kids from Louisiana will get health care in spite of the efforts of their out-of-touch representatives.

Spoils

Jindal rewards a Bollinger with an appointment to the Board of Regents.

Charlotte Bollinger had been working for the family shipyard business. What is Charlotte's interest in higher education?

Jordan Blum of the Advocate puts it like this:

She is the sister of Bollinger Shipyards CEO and Chairman Donald “Boysie” Bollinger, who is a strong advocate of expanding technical college training.

Sounds about right.

Senator Laughingstock (R), Louisiana

I know this quote has been highlighted throughout the New Orleans blogosphere and the rest of the country but I was just on the phone with my dad and he was asking me about what I thought about how our Senator killed the bailout.

I said I had to read this to him and I did, verbatim:

Morgan Johnson, president of the United Auto Workers local representing General Motors workers in Shreveport, said Friday that Sen. David Vitter's role in blocking an auto bailout indicates "he's chosen to play Russian roulette" with Louisiana jobs and the national economy.

"I don't know what Sen. Vitter has against GM or the United Auto Workers or the entire domestic auto industry; whatever it is, whatever he thinks we've done, it's time for him to forgive us, just like Sen. Vitter has asked the citizens of Louisiana to forgive him, " said Johnson, president of Local 2166. Otherwise, Johnson said of Vitter, it would appear, "He'd rather pay a prostitute than pay auto workers."

There was immediate laughter, then a weird silence, then a lot more laughter.

Morgan Johnson, you should get a promotion out of this. How 'bout you and me get jobs with Rep. Charlie Melancon?

Seriously, I still cannot believe that Vitty had the nerve to step out on this thing. It's not like he's Corker from Tennessee or Shelby in Alabama, who are both clearly beholden to the interests of the foreign auto makers.

We actually have GM jobs here in Louisiana. I can just picture the campaign ads now:

Forget his personal indiscretions, David Vitter has accomplished a lot for the state of Louisiana. He killed a bill that would have saved hundreds of factory jobs in Shreveport. So as you can see, he's still just as effective at stomping the little guy as he was before his credibility was rocked by a sex scandal.

Because of the way the GOP has made gains here in Louisiana and because of Sen. Vitter's ability to shrink away from the bright lights, I was actually starting to think that he might have a chance at reelection.

Not no more. This was the nail in the coffin.

Vitter Maintains Friendships

There have been rumblings about the possibility of a tough primary challenge for Senator Vitter in 2010. It appears, however, that he's not having much trouble retaining support among other high profile Louisiana officials.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9TH, 6:00 ‐ 8:00 PM
101 Constitution NW, 9th Floor Balcony, Washington, DC

General Admission- $1000 Pac /Individual

VIP- $5000 Pac / $4600 Individual, (Includes Private Reception and Photo with Governor Jindal and Senator Vitter from 6:00 ‐ 6:30 PM)

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CO‐HOSTS:

Senator J. Bennett Johnston
Congressman Jim McCrery
Congressman Rodney Alexander
Congressman Charles Boustany
Congressman Steve Scalise
Congressman Bob Livingston
Congressman Billy Tauzin
Congressman Jimmy Hayes
Congressman John Cooksey
Congressman Henson Moore
Congressman Clyde Holloway
Congressman‐Elect Bill Cassidy

Billed "Mardi Gras in December," this private fundraiser is NOT to be confused with the annual D.C. Mardi Gras ball that occurs each January sponsored by the Mystic Krewe of Louisiana. In 2007, David Vitter, after months of reeling from a sex scandal, emerged to organize the ball and choose that year's king, his close ally Boysie Bollinger.

Again, it's important to make this difference clear. The Mardi Gras in December ball is a private fundraiser where David Vitter will appeal for campaign donations from an elite collection of businessmen and socialites. The Washington Mardi Gras ball is a private event where Louisiana politicians mingle with an elite collection of lobbyists, businessmen, and socialites.

The T-P once wrote about the ground rules for that event:

Sponsors pay $7,500 each and receive private booths on the raised perimeter of the oval ballroom underneath large banners bearing their names. They also get 40 tickets to hand out as they wish.

The extremely different private Vitter fundraiser is considerably more expensive as a singular GA ticket costs $1000 by itself.

Dean on Louisiana

I just left a blogger conference call with DNC Chairman Howard Dean. Pretty neat right?

I even aksed a dumb cwestion.

Let me paraphrase it and Chairman Dean's response.

Me:

I have a question out of New Orleans where obviously we have had some difficult circumstances. Given some of the problems with our local and state party infrastructure in this increasingly red state, can you describe how the DNC might advance the fifty state strategy in increasingly challenging environments such as here in Louisiana?

Chairman Dean, again paraphrased:

Well I don't believe Louisiana has a problem with it's state party infrastructure. The biggest problem has been the displacement of such a large base of reliable Democratic voter base. Losing the governor's office also doesn't help, as that's a very important leadership position and that's kind of undermined a lot of state party efforts. The DNC, since the storm, has had to provide a great deal of monetary assistance to the state Democratic Party in Louisiana. We're hoping to provide more help moving forward. We're not forgetting about Louisiana, I went through Louisiana on a bus tour before we decided which states we were going to target for the 2008 cycle. Mississippi and Alabama too...

I really wanted to ask a follow-up. I wanted to know whether or not he believed that the diminished credibility of some high profile New Orleans-area politicians was undermining the Democratic Party's mission statewide. But I didn't have the chance. Oh well.

Not so sure people would agree with his rosy assessment of state party leadership.

Happy Birthday Howard Dean.

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I have heard rumors that a close relative of Howard Dean is now living in New Orleans, doing some pretty noble and thankless work. I don't think he yet reads We Could Be Famous.

Four Years Wandering: The Ascension of Bobby Jindal

I guarantee an article titled similarly to this one will be written by some reconverted academic conservative at some point on or before election day 2012.

This isn't that article. But it is coming. And you won't like it.

Oyster continues to insist that there will be all kinds of hilarious moments and opportunities for blog snark along the way. He also says that conservative desperation will be such that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal could be prematurely elevated to movement figurehead in 2012, before political opportunity structures - preconditions for GOP victory - have sufficiently developed.

Here's where I think we agree:

1. National political dynamics are such that Republicans can't win anything until 2016 at the earliest, no matter how quickly or effectively the reconstitute their party to appeal to moderates, independents, Latinos, young people, etc OR how effectively they're able to quickly catch up to the Left's emerging mastery of the internet. Nor does the narrative work. As Oyster says, "Running against an incumbent Obama, the whole 'smart, young, fresh face with broad appeal and exciting dose of pigment' angle suddenly has much less traction." He's right. It wouldn't do much against an incumbent Barack Obama.

2. Bobby Jindal is being anointed as the savior of the conservative movement with such repressed fervor that there is little chance he'll be on the sidelines through 2012 even though that cycle may be politically inopportune.

We disagree elsewhere. While we both think that neither he nor any other Republican has a realistic shot of defeating an incumbent Barack Obama, I don't believe that this will truly 'complicate' anything for Jindal over the long term, at least not to the degree that I'm interpreting from Oyster's posts.

He's twice brought up the idea that running for reelection to the Governor's mansion in 2011 would prove difficult when he's spending every other weekend in New Hampshire or Iowa or South Carolina. Here I explained how I believe that assumption misreads the oppressive political opportunity structure Jindal and his GOP bankrollers have cultivated for the native son.

I made this under appreciated joke that John Neely Kennedy would be the only Democrat dumb enough to think he'd be able to compete with Jindal for control of Baton Rouge and I think it still stands. I made that comment before Election Day, which largely turned out to be a bloodbath for Louisiana Democrats. Though Senator Landrieu easily disposed of the anemic JNK campaign, rising star Don Cazayoux was pulled out of Congress and Obama lost ground to the GOP compared to 2004. Though Democrats can name a strong challenger to take on the vulnerable Senator David Vitter in 2010, the GOP establishment will not take Jindal's reelection campaign lightly. The Boysie Bollingers and Joseph Canizaros of the local Swift Boat establishment will see to it that Bobby Jindal has everything he needs. He'll also certainly be able to attract as many $2000 bills from the national base being cultivated on his behalf as he needs to intimidate any big name Democratic thinking of taking a stab.

Shorter: Jindal cruises to reelection. Cruises.

The other half of this is the national conservative movement's search for a savior and what kind of campaign they'll have organized for 2012.

One thing we can safely say since McCain officially went down in flames last week is that conservatives do indeed realize that they have a lot of work to do. They understand that they've cannibalized critical pieces to their past electoral coalitions and alienated key blocs they'll need in future elections. They understand that their organizing infrastructure needs to be revolutionized online.

And they're going to slowly work on these things. Here young GOP faithful put forth a plan to make up ground on the internet. RNC leadership is going to work to expand the tent and rebuild grassroots organizational structure in the Ken Mehlman style with either Michael Steele or Newt Gingrich.

Of course these infrastructure improvements take time and cannot compensate for a failed vision or a lack of rhetorical narrative but it doesn't take conservative movement consensus to get the ball rolling on those longer term investments. They can't move whatever message they settle on if they haven't set the train tracks in advance.

Will they have a cogent message for the nation in 2012? Will they be able to articulate a vision?

No. Democrats will trounce the GOP in 2012.

But I do think the GOP nominee can be more than a sacrificial lamb or a placeholder.

Rather, I envision a GOP being able to patch together a fairly responsive 'progressive' platform in which they applaud the competence of the Obama administration while nitpicking away at little differences here and there. The vision I have in my mind is that they'll run against Obama like Al Gore ran against George W. Bush in 2000.

"Actually my opponent and I are not all that different. We both supported the health care bill that passed Congress but I think that it needs to allow for more blah blah blah."

"In fact, we worked together to pass national broad band infrastructure bill X but now he's for blah blah blah whereas I think we really need to get back to blah blah blah."

"There's no question we're winning the war on terror but Obama made a mistake when he didn't blah blah blah."

"Argument is good. Debate is good. We have serious disagreements about how we can continue to solve our nation's problems. They want to do it in a partisan, ideological fashion. We're about reaching across the aisle. We've broken our backs to do so for this administration but we haven't seen the kind of blah blah blah that we need."

"Blah blah blah the next step in healing this economy is small business growth blah blah blah. Obama wants to tax them more but I have a plan at blah blah blah dot com that outlines exactly what I would do"

My opinion is that the GOP will not be able to run a fear campaign in 2012. They're going to need to campaign on some sort of conservative pragmatism platform. Doing so not only puts them in the best position to not make fools of themselves in 2012 but also poises them to take advantage of any Democratic missteps for the 2014 midterms and finally for the 2016 free-for-all.

The GOP won't run further to the right with Palin or some other nutjob in 2012. They'll just repackage what they currently have to draft off of Obama's unstoppable momentum. Jindal will run for President and he'll stump for the type of pragmatic conservatism that I've discussed. Whether or not he wins the nomination, settles at the VP slot, or stays out entirely, his narrative or one greatly influenced by him will ultimately guide the GOP's medium-term trajectory.

He can lose in 2012 without sandbagging his own chances in 2016. If Obama succeeds in enacting his agenda through 2010, the GOP will run an uncharacteristically congenial campaign in 2012, even if it's not any more centrist ideologically. What is your list of viable GOP candidates in 2012? Would any of them represent more of the same tear-down fear-monger style? Could that work against any popular Democratic incumbent?

Here is my list of likely GOP candidates in 2012:

1. Jindal
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. Palin
5. Daniels

On that list, only Palin would run a wacko campaign. All of the others would push a more confident, intellectually curious, amicable, articulate, and patriotic GOP.

And as we've seen, party elders have already thrown Governor Palin overboard.

The bottom line is that the mainstream media is already gobbling up the Jindal-as-next narrative. They love the taste of geeky wonky conservatism. Chris Cillizza has written about Bobby Jindal more than I have over the last few weeks. He's going to spend the next 4 years ranking Bobby Jindal in the top 3 on his Friday GOP nomination line. Conservative academia loves him, he passes enough litmus tests of the religious base, and he symbolically represents a 21st Century GOP through his youth and ethnicity.

Oyster thinks it's going to be a lot of fun to watch Jindal run that gauntlet. I don't think it will be a comedy of errors even if he and the GOP in general will continue to flail at a national message. Jindal's strength, in my mind, is that his youth allows him to be malleable on all sorts of Obama initiatives that might garner unbridled popular support without alienating his GOP base.


Update: Something just brought me back to this piece written last May by the Newt. In it, Gingrich expresses the understanding that attack politics couldn't work for Republicans in the current political environment:

The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.

This model has already been tested with disastrous results.

In 2006, there were six incumbent Republican Senators who had plenty of money, the advantage of incumbency, and traditionally successful consultants.

But the voters in all six states had adopted a simple position: "Not you." No matter what the GOP Senators attacked their opponents with, the voters shrugged off the attacks and returned to, "Not you."

The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, "Not the Republicans."

After that, Newt proposes a new platform of "winning" issues that is impressively narrow and one-dimensional considering the width and depth of our nation's challenges.

Gingrich is incredibly conservative and incredibly partisan. A Gingrich-controlled Republican Party would be further to the right than that which John McCain represented this cycle. However, that isn't synonymous with this idea that the GOP would run a more extremist campaign. Rather, I think Newt's article rather bolsters my argument that the minority GOP will run a congenial and unimaginative 'these are our issues' campaign in 2012 that allows them to grope toward a vision and hold the coalition without inflicting further damage to the brand name.

Jindal Career Counciling

Oyster aptly assesses Bobby Jindal's prospects for national office after Mitt Romney fluffs the governor on local radio:

Running for Prez in 2012 would be difficult for Bobby. He'd have to gear up while running for Gubernatorial re-election in 2011, which would be sort of farcical. Also, displacing a sitting President isn't an easy thing to do. 2016 would make the most sense for him. He'd still be young and fresh, but would have more "executive experience"... etc. And after eight years of Obama and a Democratic powergrip on Congress, the GOP will be looking for a political savior to lead them out of the wilderness.

I agree to an extent. The McCain campaign exemplifies an erosion of the Republican coalition and message that will take more than one election cycle to halt. The GOP will have a very difficult go of things in 2012 for a wide variety of reasons. It is a lot easier to picture a successful "savior" campaign in 2016 when memories of recent history have been sufficiently erased.

My disagreement is with Oyster's assumption that the 2012 campaign would complicate his 2011 reelection bid. Running on a 'the work's not done' message would only be slightly more complicated when questioned about his habitual getaways to Iowa and New Hampshire. I do not foresee any challenge that Bobby Jindal's astronomical approval rating cannot withstand. His core donors are extremely wealthy and have been extremely generous on his behalf. While some might tap themselves out propping up the Vitter campaign in 2010 there will be something left in the tank for the Governor, if what I've learned about Vitty Cent's diminished support within the base is true. Plus, given that Bobby Jindal has already being introduced to the national kingmakers, he'll have no problem glad-handing his way to an enormous reelection war chest.

What Democrat in Louisiana will consider it worthwhile to go up against an exceedingly popular incumbent governor with overflowing campaign coffers?

Will the promise of a couple of TV ads worth of "duh, den why he all in Iowa?" be enough to convince a high profile Democrat to go all-in?

For my money, Mitch Landrieu, Charlie Melancon, and Don Cazayoux are the only Democrats with the credibility to run a statewide campaign. Either Melancon or Cazayoux will defeat Vitter in 2010 and the remainders are smart enough to realize that it's much wiser to consolidate Democratic power by locking down and expanding reach into the various congressional seats.

The only democrat dumb enough to campaign for governor in 2011 is John Neely Kennedy.

In other words, Jindal has nothing to worry about if he wants to go all-in for 2012.

However, to go back to the first point about the national political climate in 2012, my guess is that Jindal will go all-in on a bluff. It will be very much worth his while to campaign hard in the early primary states in 2011 in order to build an infrastructure for the real thing in 2016. The other possibility is that the Republican primary voters get it together to nominate somebody with the sense to remake the conservative message. For instance, should Mike Huckabee continue to make a play for young evangelicals with a message of charity, environmental responsibility, and the Earth is 6000 years old. . . well Bobby Jindal might find it helpful to slide into the VP slot. If Rudy Giuliani is the GOP nominee, Jindal might find it helpful to soak in the national security credentials rub.

Whatever the outcome, Jindal will almost certainly have his sights set on the 2012 GOP primary. However, his intention will be to run, not to win. If he is to seek the Presidency in 2016, if he is to even consider it, he'll need to have some semblance of a national grassroots infrastructure already in place. He can afford to prime the pump in 2012 because the 2011 gubernatorial reelection will be nothing more than a pesky mosquito.

Useless

This article in the T-P about the priorities of Louisiana voters is a stinking pile because the polls on which the piece is based were poorly constructed and poorly worded. It made me mad. If I'm a politician or a consultant, there is not one conclusion or piece of data that I'd find informative or useful in any way. This sentence is particularly dismal:

Coming in last as a "very important issue" was global warming, considered "very important" by 41.3 percent of the 600 likely voters called between Aug. 20 and Aug. 24.

Ugh.

"The Next Cheney"

Today is Bobby Jindal Day over at the DNC. The Next Cheney campaign is designed to ensure accurate media representation of potential John McCain veep picks.

Democrats have made the wise choice not to cede ethics reform to Governor Jindal.

Were you aware that 10 of 11 members of the LA Board of Ethics have resigned?

Jindal offered that the resignations resulted from new required financial disclosures demanded of board members. The sole remaining board member disagreed:

Ethics Board member Dr. Cedric Lowrey, of Alexandria, said the Legislature and Jindal’s taking away of board powers to decide cases of ethics violations was “a major factor in many members’ resignations.”

That's interesting. What happened there?

From the Daily Comet:

The board cannot assemble a quorum, or the majority necessary to conduct a meeting. And that means the board cannot fulfill its primary task: ruling in ethics cases.

That duty will be passed over to administrative-law judges starting August 15 -- at least until the Ethics Board posts can be refilled by Gov. Bobby Jindal.

The confusion, in large part, stems from the vague use of the term "authority" in the law. The law says members of boards that have the "authority" to spend or invest $10,000 or more must file the tougher ethics reports.

But parish councils, which appoint many of the smaller boards’ members, generally have the ultimate say on how local boards spend tax dollars. So no one can confirm whether members of smaller boards are the actual "authority" over those dollars.

Thus "confusion" over inarticulate attempts to improve ethics law has ultimately produced a completely gutted ethics board and the power to rule in ethics cases is now firmly in the hand of state administrative law judges.

Here's a stunning visual aide, from the Louisiana Board of Ethics site:

Louisiana Board of Ethics and The Supervisory Committee for Campaign Finance

Vacant Chairman Vacant Vice-Chairman Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Dr. Cedric Lowrey Alexandria, Louisiana Vacant Vacant Vacant

Shepherd's Next Step...

...should be to quit while he's behind.

I'm so glad all this was such a big game to him. Now it's over.

Nasty guy.

Now he's canceled his previously scheduled public apology.

He doesn't have to apologize to me if he's too damn proud so long as he resigns from his damn office.

Will Grassroots Conservatives Eat From Kennedy's Flip Flops?

There has been a lot of talk about Republican Senate candidate John N. Kennedy recently.

Though much of that talk has been about whether or not this pathetic showing actually constitutes a campaign:


Doesn't seem like there's a whole lot of enthusiasm amongst Republican activists. I can't confirm this, maybe Brian Welsh can help shed some light, but perhaps Kennedy's people (or person) forgot to put out the platter of Triskets and cheddar cheese cubes. As anyone familiar with events that pair impressive banquet hall carpeting with soulless out-of-touch millionaires who lack any political values other than their own greedy thirst for power, it is difficult to obtain the intern/service staff attendance necessary to make the room look enthusiastic without toothpicks and slices of under-ripened honeydew.

While we wait for reports of the event refreshment situation, we'll be left to speculate as to why Kennedy failed to attract any Republican interest from Republican stronghold Baton Rouge. Mr. Kennedy's campaign against Senator Mary Landrieu is slated as the GOP's only realistic chance at unseating an incumbent Democrat.

Mr. Kennedy himself was personally recruited for the race by Karl Rove, the brain behind President Bush's historically low approval ratings and a future convicted felon. Mr. Kennedy, it would appear - after listening to the advice of Mr. Rove - took a look at all his previously-stated political positions, realized that they were of increasingly popularity in a climate toxic toward the failed policies of the Bush administration, an administration he had been wise enough to repudiate when he endorsed and campaigned for Senator Kerry in 2004. . .

. . . And ultimately decided to go ahead and declare himself wrong on all the things which he had actually been totally right.

That was a mouthful, let me attempt to simplify that into a simple diagram:

Future felon + Kennedy's correct and politically popular positions on important economic and foreign policy issues = Embarrassingly abrupt reversal + adoption of factually inaccurate and politically unpopular positions on economic and foreign policy issues

Pretty clear, no?

Anyways, after Mr. Rove promised Mr. Kennedy all kinds of campaign resources because Landrieu's seat was apparently such a golden lifeboat for the GOP to not be entirely blown out in November, the State Treasurer decided to jump on board the sinking ship.

So how did Karl Rove follow up on his promises to John N. Kennedy?

Rove put the Kennedy campaign on the right foot by allowing the Landrieu campaign to out-raise Kennedy by nearly 2 to 1, in spite of George W. Bush's $500,000 plea to Republican donors and Louisiana citizens on the importance of voting for Mr. Kennedy before giving him a "fair hearing" on his views.

So with Kennedy in a huge financial hole and national GOP helpers slowly backing away at the site of polls occasionally putting him 12 and 16 points behind Senator Landrieu, he launched his refreshment platter and supporter-deficient bus tour.

Now, national GOP helpers may be running for the hills.

John N. Kennedy is going to have to out-conservative an insurgent primary challenger.

With a name like J. Jacques Boudreaux, how can he not gain at least some traction amongst grassroots Republicans?

Knowing absolutely nothing about the man, he should instantly possess more credibility amongst conservatives and objective human beings of all stripes than the spayed down-ticket pet that Karl Rove took from John Kerry's kennel of no-talent castaways.

Whether or not Mr. Boudreaux will be able to raise the money necessary to legitimately challenge Mr. Kennedy's nomination is unclear. It is not a stretch of the imagination to assume that there are a lot of activist fundagelicals less than pleased with Mr. Kennedy's commitment to conservative doctrine.

Either way, John N. Kennedy is going to have to spend a lot more of his already meager campaign loot than he thought on the carrot, celery and ranch dip plates necessary to fend off this most unexpected primary opponent.

I'm no fan of Senator Landrieu centrism but Louisianians would be absolutely out of their mind to elect a stiff like John N. Kennedy when Senator Landrieu is poised to become one of the most powerful blue dogs and effective pork farmers in all of Congress.

I predict a relative blowout in favor of Senator Mary Landrieu.