Rumors, Murmurs

1. Might Congressman Cao be switching parties?

There is confirmed chatter amongst local Democrats that this may be in the works. It would certainly make things interesting and might help Cao emerge out of a primary if other contenders end up beating up each other instead of the incumbent. Really, though, I'm not sure there's much of anything Cao can do in one direction or another to retain his seat. It certainly helps to vote in the interests of the district, as he did when he finally voted for healthcare reform the other day. If Cao departs from the GOP, it would certainly feed into the GOP purge narrative that Democrats are keen on playing up.


2. What is Karen Carter Peterson up to?

She's definitely running for Congress but won't announce until after the Mayor's race or even later. The Chairman of the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee, James Gray, has already seemingly endorsed Cedric Richmond. This is of particular interest because Gray is the father of State Senator Cheryl Gray Evans, who is Karen Carter Peterson's BFF. That could make things weird. And what does this say about Cheryl Gray Evans ambition, or lack their of, for higher office? The KCP development may contribute to the reasons why we're not seeing the local Democratic establishment follow the lead of national progressive organizations and the Obama administration in praising Congressman Cao's vote for healthcare reform.


3. Is State Sen. Ed Murray really a front-runner for Mayor?

Yes, just take a look at his fundraising totals for the quarter. For the lazy, that's nearly six hundred grand. We'll get a better sense of what's going on after the official deadline for campaign finance reports later this week.


4. Might we find someone other than Charlie Melancon to run for Senate?

A trustworthy reader wrote the old gmail account about State Senator Eric LaFleur:

E:

He'd be the best candidate of the bunch. But his wife is pregnant with their second child, and she's due either this month or next. I don't think he'll be throwing his hat in the ring. It totally sucks, but I'd love to see Charlie get cold feet, which may be the only thing to make him reconsider. I think he's the Louisiana version of Obama ... young State Senator that gets young folks totally invested in government/politics again.

Not sure there will ever be such a thing as the Louisiana version of Obama but I'd love to hear more about Senator LaFleur.

Who else we got?

I have pretty much lost all confidence in Rep. Charlie Melancon as a legislator and candidate for Senate. His electoral strategy against seems to be do everything the same as David Vitter but don't get caught sleeping with prostitutes. That is more than a cowardly political strategy, it's also one that has resulted in votes counter to the interests of average Louisianians.

So who else do we have?

Does anyone out there have the cojones to fight David Vitter instead of emulate him?

Here are the names of some Louisiana politicians, some of whom I don't know very much about. I'm just throwing darts here. I'll need you to fill in the blanks in the comment section below.

State Senator Eric Lafleur
Former Congressman Don Cazayoux
Speaker Pro Tem Karen Carter Peterson
Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden
Former Governor Kathleen Blanco
Republican Congressman Joseph Cao

I'd love for any of these characters to enter the race as a Democrat or Independent.

I want real choices.

Btw, here is the wikipedia entry on Eric LaFleur. I don't know enough about his political positions to really have an opinion on whether or not he'd be the best choice but he voted Yes on HB 780 when it was before the Senate Education Committee this last session and really seemed to 'get it.' Anyway, he sounds like a badass:

LaFleur speaks French, plays saxophone in the band Déjà Vu, and is currently training for his private pilot license.

Plus he has a son named Atticus.

Someone please do this to my Saturn

 

Melancon for Senate? Door Reopened

Says Politico.

What's the hold up? He's obviously the best candidate to take on David Vitter.

It's interesting that the Politico picked up on the Arnie Fielkow buzz.

An Orgy of Possibilities: Senate Swingers

I've been off of my arbitrary election handicapping game for way too long. I apologize to the denizens of fans that have been laying awake at night refreshing the WCBF main page just to be the first to know my fleeting thoughts on Stormy Daniels or Tony Perkins.

Prior to the New Year, it seemed like Senator David Vitter was going to glide in smoothly for a surprisingly easy backdoor reelection. While one would think that values-conscious Louisiana residents would want to punish someone serving with so many lascivious rumors swirling but for a couple of reasons, Vitter's troubles have been downplayed. For one, Senator Vitter slunk to the back benches of Congress and was able to keep his name out of the news for anything - good and bad. Secondly, Louisiana Democrats have generally been on the defensive and have seemed more concerned about eliciting a backlash from Vitter's defenders than they are with demanding Vitter provide legitimate answers.

Now however, the surprising amount of room that Vitter carved out for himself seems to be rapidly contracting.

The bad bad Senator's increasingly public role as one of Obama's most vocal opponents has put him at the forefront of a new Wallace legacy 'no' bloc that also includes thinking men like Richard Shelby and Jim DeMint. While this certainly excites many racist Louisiana voters, it has also served to refocus the ire of Vitter's opponents. He's been badly ridiculed by the national press on several occasions since November whereas before, it seemed like he'd been getting a pass.

Plus, what the Louisiana Democratic Party refused to touch is being intimately embraced by porn star Stormy Daniels' campaign. That little operation could fold up five minutes from now and the mission will have already been accomplished - namely to bring Vitter's hypocritical and criminal sexual activities back into the public conversation about the Senator's service.

If you're having trouble recognizing the fruits of that effort, look to your right.

No, further to the right. Way to your right.

To the Line!!!

(From least likely to most likely to be elected in November 2010)

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10. Wildcards - Many other names (Breaux, Bruno, Cazayoux, Kennedy, Dardenne, Nagin) could surface between now and then...

9. Stormy Daniels (R) - This porn star turned porn executive has turned out to be a pretty good cable TV squawker. She's found a pretty clever way to highlight Vitter's scandal by contrasting the direct illegality of his acts to the perceived implied immorality of her industry. If Larry Flynt gets involved financially, the Daniels campaign will have some real juice behind it. And Flynt is definitely going to be interested in parsing out some of those old New Orleans stories for public consumption. Vitter doesn't want that at all.

8. Walter Boasso (D) - The Democratic field is up in the air enough that it's pretty much appropriate to just assume that anybody who's run for statewide office in the last 6 years is thinking about running. Boasso is a loser though so I wouldn't expect him to stick around.

7. Charlie Melancon (D) - I'd love for him to run. He might lose his Congressional seat to the census as it is, so I don't know why he says he's not interested. This is a drag for Louisiana Democrats. He would have made the best candidate.

6. Tony Perkins (R) - This nutcase from the Family Research Council has said he's considering a morality-based primary challenge against Vitter. Perkins can mobilize foot soldiers. I'm worried if I'm Vitter.

5. Chris John (D) - This guy is so uninspiring to me, even though the rematch storyline could make for a compelling narrative. Yawn.

4. John Cooksey (R) - This former Rep. has already pledged $200,000 of his own money for the race provided he thinks that the Republican base is receptive to challenging Vitter. You don't lay that kind of money on the line and not run. He's probably in. And it seems like he'd be a real force in a GOP primary.

3. Jim Bernhard (D) - The CEO of the Shaw Group has lots of dough to get started and he's definitely interested. He's going to really struggle to get money from national progressive grassroots but if he's willing to bankroll himself, he can be competitive without much help from the Democratic Party. If that's the case, he can play himself up as an independent moderate or whatever. Hard to gauge because I've never seen him speak or anything but he could turn out to be a robust candidate.

2. Kathleen Blanco (D) - I'm putting this one on the table because of the dearth of Democrats with statewide name recognition. She'll have a lot of tough questions to answer about her sorry record as governor along the way but I raise the specter because of polls late in her governorship indicating softening disapproval ratings and because of her increased public presence in the press in connection to the Vitter seat. Vitter has personally antagonized her to get her to run. I think it's clear she's going to consider the offer. When you say things like "today I am not a candidate," you're probably going to run.

1. David Vitter (XXX) - Incumbent won't slip from the top spot until there's actually a campaign going on and he's shown to be trailing in the polls. He has a ton of structural advantages in his favor but he's legitimately vulnerable.

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This is going to be a Louisiana classic.

LA Senate Line 2010 - An Orgy of Possibilities

You've got to hand it to David Vitter. His insatiable lust - for power - represents an interesting subject of study.

My sense of political precedent tells me that a sitting Senator that ran on a family values + morality platform would be pretty much toast if caught in a sex scandal, let alone in an illegal prostitution sting. Not only would that Senator have absolutely no chance at reelection, but he'd face a lot of pressure from his own electoral base to immediately resign.

Not only did Senator David Vitter face that scenario and stare it down, he also calculated it would be worth it for him and his family to continue to be embarrassed by rumors of years of infidelity garnished with the lurid details of his sexual fetishes.

One wonders why he didn't take a cue from former House Speaker Bob Livingston, who used to represent Senator Vitter's congressional district and but resigned in shame after Larry Flynt exposed Livingston's marital infidelity and hypocritical rhetoric on the Lewinsky scandal. Livingston has "no regrets" over resigning his office and it's quite easy to see why. His lobbying firm is extremely successful, earning riches probably several times greater than what would have been possible as a member of the House.

And though Vitter's silence has created some degree of separation between his office and the underground sex market (as far as we know), it is not as if people have forgotten. Morgan Johnson forgave, but he certainly did not forget.

Neither have Vitter's local GOP frenemies.

So it is fairly probable that David Vitter will face a primary challenge from within the GOP, even the anonymous craigslist candidate could do some serious damage.

On the Democratic side, the vulnerable Vitter provides a rare opportunity to gain ground given the resounding nature of GOP victories in recent statewide elections. Though the shine is fading from Governor Bobby Jindal's armor, he will not be particularly vulnerable when he comes up for reelection in 2011. Democrats serious about obtaining higher office will be trying their luck against Vitter while his diaper is still dirty.

Here are the rules for the line:

The lower a candidate is on the list, the higher the liklihood of election.

Democrats and Republicans will be ranked together on the line.

Until there is hard evidence that Democrats have rallied around a singular candidate, Vitter will rank number 1. The power attached to incumbency is an incredible asset. Until a Democrat can demonstrate financial competitiveness, Vitter will be safe at the top spot.

So without further adeiu:

10. Two wild card scenarios: A) Mitch goes for the brother sister thing. B) Bobby Jindal goes for the Evan Bayh thing.

9. John Neely Kennedy: The only question is whether his writers will stick with the GOP heel gimmick or turn him back into a babyface liberal Democrat and pretend 2008 never happened.

8. Ms. Craigslist: Is it possible that Louisiana residents would vote for a Republican former sex worker? I think that many will get off on doing just that.

7. Vincent Bruno: Mr. Bruno might just be a personality within the state GOP and not a public official but he has confirmed interest in this race. Bruno offered an erotic stipulation for his candidacy; one that promises to really stir the pot, no matter which way Vitter responds.

6. Walter Boasso: Pug ugly former candidate for governor may or may not sap resources from more viable Democratic contenders.

5. Jim Harlan: Though he was demolished by Steve Scalise in his underdog campaign in the LA 01, Harlan ran a pretty solid campaign. He could finance his own campaign to a certain degree. This could be a major advantage should there be a large number of Democratic candidates vying for the same pool of donors.

4. Don Cazayoux: After shocking political pundits with his victory last spring, Cazayoux recently lost his bid for a full term representing the LA-06 by a hair as a result of the involvement of a vote-sapping independent candidate. I was very impressed by his campaign and he could be a major player in the revival of the state democratic party if he stays in politics.

3. Chris John: Totally underwhelming and uninspiring candidate has statewide name recognition and could be interested in a rematch against Vitter.

2. Charlie Melancon: Rep. Melancon is the only Democrat left in Louisiana's Congressional delegation. He's pretty popular in his home district and was probably wise to join with the Blue Dog caucus. His policy positions are centrist enough to win in this conservative state, particularly if he can hit Vitter on values-type themes. He'll likely consider the race seriously, not just because Vitter is vulnerable but also because of the threat posed by the 2010 census redistricting process.

1. David Vitter: Vitter seems to have recovered from his scandal enough to raise money from the New Orleans business elite crowd. Plus he's already testing out reelection bumper stickers.


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I'm probably missing an upstate Democrat or two that might have interest. I've also likely overlooked some potential GOP challengers.

What do you think?