The Race Race

What was once a primary campaign to determine which white person and which black person will face one another in a runoff is still a primary campaign to determine which white person and which black person will face one another in a runoff.

Mitch Landrieu's candidacy is so intriguing because he, more than any other candidate, has an opportunity to undercut this dynamic to some degree.

I don't know if it is the conventional wisdom that Mitch Landrieu is a shoo-in to be in the runoff, but it shouldn't be.

Leslie Jacobs is apparently furious with Mitch Landrieu for lying to her about his intentions. She reportedly went to him just two weeks ago to secure his promise that he wouldn't be running before she spent all kinds of money on television advertising. Her campaign staff is putting the word out that she is staying in the race and intending to win it. She will be putting in qualifying papers first thing tomorrow so we'll know by mid-morning tomorrow whether or not she has any second thoughts. Apparently, before Georges announced his candidacy, he was similarly deferential to Mitch Landrieu but I see no indication that he has any interest in quitting now.

Though Landrieu has important name-recognition and a star power quality that will give him an immediate short term advantage and the ability to tap into some real buyer's remorse from 2006, Georges and Jacobs should not be viewed as setting suns. Georges and Jacobs are millionaires. They can afford to get their names out there. Mitch Landrieu has his vulnerabilities just like everyone else.

On the surface, the three of them will be vying for different slices of similar electorates. Georges will try to capture Lakeview, old uptown families, and is going to try hard to mobilize some measure of cross-over African American support. Jacobs is going to try to capture young voters, women, and a lot of business council types who pretend to like John Georges but secretly think he's an a-hole. If Georges and Jacobs stay in, as it looks like they will, they'll have enough campaign power to capture large bases of support.

But Landrieu is still a wild card. As the only candidate with legitimate star power, he'll have the luxury of setting the debate. Depending on how he structures his platform and campaign, he could emerge as a shoe-in for the run off or he could be in for a much tougher fight.

Does Landrieu analyze this election as distilling down to a white primary, a black primary, and a runoff? Does he feel he needs to fight off Jacobs and Georges for a large enough share of the white vote to get into the runoff?

Is he just going to be a more charismatic version of Arnie Fielkow?

Or, does he instead aspire to earn widespread African American support?

Georges is definitely attempting to coddle together some votes in the black community but it's hard to imagine his largely appearance-based efforts will yield substantive results. Jacobs may want to put together that kind of coalition but I don't think she even knows where to begin.

Mitch Landrieu has the Civil Rights legacy of his father, Moon.

Will Mitch Landrieu run on that legacy by demonstrating his value as a bridge builder willing to fight for compromises from entrenched power structures?

Or, will he campaign for citywide office like he and his sister have campaigned for statewide office, as the consensus candidates of the Democratic Party and the chamber of commerce?

He can run as super-Arnie and either win or lose a much harder than anticipated white people primary, and then lose in the runoff to Ed Murray, who, for his part, is reaching out to white voters though his district and his allies in the developer class.

Or, Mitch Landrieu can run as Moon Landrieu's son and take a stab at a real consensus coalition.

He might still lose the election doing it that way, but I'd like him and his chances a heckuva lot better.

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Quick power rankings:


In it to spin it:

8. Rob Couhig
7. Nadine Ramsey


Lurking not looming:

6. Troy Henry
5. James Perry


Looming not lurking:

4. John Georges
3. Leslie Jacobs


Until further notice:

2. Mitch Landrieu
1. Ed Murray

Mitch Again?

According to sources close to the Landrieu political operation, Mitch Landrieu is expected to announce his candidacy for Mayor of New Orleans.

This totally rearranges the field.

Maybe he liked what he heard out of that poll he was running a few weeks ago.

It's not paradise

What a difference in just two years.

The homicide rate is down almost 24 percent since 2007. Violent crime receded 10 percent this year.

Single-stream recycling saved $400,000 in landfill fees in September alone.

The number of homeless people is down 26 percent since last year, thanks to a new partnership with the Philadelphia Housing Authority.

The city's inspector general, with more resources, is rooting out corruption on an unprecedented scale.

Members of the city's criminal-justice system have reduced the prison population 11 percent in a huge reversal of past yearly increases.

Licenses and Inspections is processing building-permit applications within two days, and customer satisfaction at L&I counter service is soaring.

The city fleet is smaller by 400 vehicles.

Since last year, filled, full-time positions in city government were reduced 705 to a total of 22,625.

We're writing a new zoning code to replace our 46-year-old version.

And the 311 Call Center has handled almost a million calls in less than a year of operation.

It's just Philadelphia under Michael Nutter.

It certainly hasn't been all roses. These are tough economic times in Philly and not everyone is happy about the cuts that he had to make, but an 11% reduction in the prison population in the midst of a 26% drop in homicides is a pretty stunning achievement for a place bit hard by tough-on-crime sloganeers. It's impossible to read Nutter's op-ed in the Inquirer and not hurt over our failure in New Orleans to come together around these kinds of pragmatic reforms. Mayor Nutter broke a cycle of racially divisive municipal campaigns by putting together a working coalition and won election by the largest margin in Philadelphia history. It was a mandate.

And now, for the first time in a long time, Philly has a game plan.

It's an important reminder not just that our issues are not totally unique, but also that solutions are not so impossible to achieve.

Just need a leader with a little vision and big enough guts to put together a coalition for pragmatic progressive reforms similar to those listed in Mayor Nutter's retrospective.

Would anyone be left unsatisfied with a list of accomplishments like this from our Mayor in his or her second state of the city address?

Blast from the past

Murderous corrupt cop Len Davis is seeking to avoid the death penalty.

I am against the death penalty and I hope this man is instead forced to rot in prison for the rest of his life. I wrote about Len Davis and Warren Riley's role protecting him from a domestic violence investigation last spring. Riley is a cop's cop, they say.

I'm John Georges and I hate running for Mayor (and this prop dog)

What the hell kind of campaign ad is this? Not only does the guy look like he hates the dog he's sitting with but it also looks like he hates running for Mayor. The ad is, I guess, designed to highlight Georges' aggressive desire for the office of Mayor but this ad kind of makes it seem like he hates running for office, doesn't think he should have to actually campaign, and thinks he deserves an immediate coronation.




The Times-Pic got in touch with the media consultant behind the ad:

"We wanted to show that John was willing to poke fun at himself," she said. "We're trying to re-introduce him and show all sides of him. Then we'll get to the issues."

It doesn't look like Georges is poking fun at himself. He looks authentically uncomfortable.

I'm sure Karen Carvin Sachat has all kinds of focus group info on this but it doesn't seem to me that people are skeptical of John Georges because he's too aggressive or too committed to being mayor. I think it's more like people think John Georges is a spoiled brat on a power trip. To me, this commercial explicitly reinforces that perception and as a result, might be one of the worst commercials I've ever seen.

I'll miss Pam Dashiell

I was absolutely floored by the news that she is gone. I saw her just two weeks ago at Wally Thurman's 80th birthday party in Lower Mid-City. Though we didn't know each other particularly well, it was easy to tell that she was something of a kindrid spirit. Not many people really find that sweet spot where sarcastic outrage and unending optimism find balance. I asked her about her recent trip to the White House and went on and on (tongue in cheek) about how I had heard through the grapevine that she had been summoned by the President himself and picked up in a military helicopter at her front door at dawn.

Of course it hadn't really gone down that way.

It was, like it is too often for Ninth Ward advocates, a schlep.

She would have deserved that kind of urgency though.

She once spoke to Open Sound about a vision for St. Claude Avenue.

In my dreams, she was District E's City Councilwoman.

Big people article alert

Last Friday I wrote sumthin for the Lens about James Perry's effing campaign.

Clueless

Would Leslie Jacobs, Ed Murray, Troy Henry, John Georges or their campaigns like to dispute the accuracy of the Perry campaign's account of the following exchange at today's debate sponsored by the Afterschool Partnership?

Gina Warner, CEO of the Afterschool Partnership, asked:

“What is your position on the Youth Studies Center?”

--

Troy Henry: I am in favor of the Youth Studies Center. I am in favor of using the youth studies center in collaboration with all the revised library systems that are also being built. So we want to be smart and prudent about how we use our current resources today so where it makes sense to consolidate lets do that but where it makes sense to keep them separate and individual, let’s do that. But we need to make sure we have the Youth Studies Center.

(Nervous laughter)

John Georges: I’m for them as well. We have to be about our facilities. Libraries are certainly one group. It’s all about budgeting and available dollars and the idea is to do like the board of regents ... it’s also a budgetary issue.

(Nervous laughter)

Leslie Jacobs: I think it’s critically important for kids, our students to have a place to go outside of school. Schools have a $1.6 billion rebuilding plan, we need to look how to locate each of these youth studies centers inside our of our school buildings. I think they are important but given the budgetary crisis the more we can co locate with a library, school and other civic centers the easier it will be to staff them and the easier it will be to maintain them."

(Nervous laughter)

Edwin Murray: I too am in support of youth study centers i think it would be great if we could somehow figure out a way to put them in schools and figure out how to just keep the schools open a little longer and also use Library systems across the city. Its important also to try to work in in recreational activities some kind of way to make sure that after school Youth Study Centers to be involved as well to encourage kids in extracurricular activities

(Nervous laughter)

James Perry: I want to be clear because I think some folks misunderstood this issue. The Youth Studies Center is a jail. It is a prison. The subject of some very difficult litigation. Children have been imprisoned for long periods of time with no access to quality eduction at all. We need children to have access to education despite incarceration. If you are locked up for 24 hours a day there is no chance we can decrease the rate. It’s how we define When it comes to juveniles in this system making sure they have a real educational opportunity so that the prison they are in does not define the outcomes of the rest of their lives.

(Raucous Applause)

This is sad. You don't need to be an expert on criminal justice policy generally nor or own local criminal justice system to understand the ongoing plight of children flushed into the hellhole that is the Youth Study Center, you just need to read the news. This is a criminal facility, not a facility appropriate for the detention of accused juvenile criminals. One of the best nonprofits in the city, the Juvenile Justice Project, has a dead serious lawsuit responsible for forcing the concessions made in the treatment of young people held there. Some of those changes include things like prohibiting the denial of medical care, halting 21-hour lock downs, and keeping the place free of rats and mold.

This is not a place to "support" without explanation. If you wanted to give an unsubstantial answer answer to this because you don't really know what you're talking about, the only acceptable statement would be "SHUT IT DOWN."

Now, the account above comes from a Perry campaign press release. Other candidates should feel free to offer an explanation for their ignorance.

Soon Only Shiela Stroup Will Be Left Standing

Rumor is that this Wednesday's column by James Gill will be his last at the Times-Picayune.

It is hard to believe the T-P couldn't figure out something to at least keep one of their top political columnists through the elections next Spring.

Their capacity to cover important issues in this city is shrinking far too quickly.

Me no like.

I'M A TOTAL SELL OUT

I have a new post on the politics of affordable housing in New Orleans right.... over.... HERE!