Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Poll Perspective

Two recent polls have indicated that Barack Obama has opened up a sizable lead on John McCain, including this one from Newsweek originally considered to be a potential outlier.

When these polls showing double-digit leads for Obama are announced, it is always followed by responsible calls to remember that polls in June rarely reflect November results. Often, they remind me that Ross Perot lead in 1992 polls.

I think comparing this election to that which occurred 2004 is more useful.

When you look at Bush v. Kerry polls, the big lead for Obama in 2008 appears to be quite impressive. Between June 1st, 2004 and election day of that year, John Kerry never held a lead of over 8 points. Polls throughout this period also, at times, gave George Bush a sizeable lead. I have not yet seen a poll where McCain has been in front of Obama. (At least not since the beginning of June.)

UPDATE: Found that LATimes/Bloomberg poll giving Obama a 12 point lead over McCain. It confirms Newsweek's 15 point spread when Nader and Barr are included.

1 comment:

oyster said...

Barr's inclusion in polls is important, and will demonstrate why McCain's support is soft. The polls turnout models are still hopelessly conservative, too.

The race will "tighten", of course. I would not be surprised to see Obama win 49-47%, with Barr getting close to 2% in several crucial primary states.