Sunday, June 01, 2008

Battleground: Louisiana?

Rasmussen Reports, a respected name in reports, has released some interesting polling data pertaining to Louisiana.

First, John McCain is running at 50% and Obama is nine points down at 41%.

That's not bad considering the contentious nature of the Democratic nomination process and the palpable reluctance of some loyal Clintonites to state their support for Mr. Obama as the nomination process comes to a close. Louisiana is considered to be a safely Republican state and does not seem right now to be a major priority of the Obama campaign.

Yet, I believe that Louisiana could be won by Mr. Obama. Many voters will be registering at new residencies for this election - the first of mainstream consequence since the Hurricane. I don't think it is a stretch to assume that most of those displaced and uncounted voters have a reason to be bitter toward the Republican Party and their nominee John McCain. With a sizeable investment in voter registration efforts and targeted advertisements pointing out the vastly different recovery and wetlands protection agendas of the two candidates, I believe John McCain would be hard-pressed to keep up, given that his campaign will need to invest precious resources elsewhere.

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We also have a Senate race.

Currently, Mary Landrieu leads John Kennedy by 3 points, 47%-44%.

This is the only Senate race where Republicans believe they'll have a decent shot at knocking out a Demcratic incumbent. Clearly, Senator Landrieu should be nervous, these polls do not show a big advantage and Kennedy has not begun campaigning in earnest. Senator Landrieu will have to focus on reregistration efforts to boost Democratic turnout where voters have been displaced or have placed voting on the back-burner.

It is likely that the DNC will pump resources into the region to assist Senator Landrieu.

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That being the case, wouldn't it be more efficient to coordinate efforts between Landrieu and Obama? The Landrieu team should make this case. Certainly they can see the power of the Obama campaign in terms of inspiring voter registration and campaign participation. Even if Landrieu's consultants determine that Obama could pose a public relations problem given the GOP's propensity to use him in attack ads against down ticket candidates, Kennedy is likely to try this out regardless of whether or not Landrieu and Obama coordinate events, fundraisers, or voter registration campaigns.

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