Wednesday, January 09, 2008

So This Morning

It's just such a shame that everyone saw the blowout coming. Because Barack Obama's candidacy is still an unprecedented, unforeseen, and unpredictable phenomenon.

He sent his supporters an email today titled "we knew this would be hard."

There is still something special about the way people respond to Senator Obama and something special about the way he is framing his electoral coalition as something more powerful than simply being a democrat in the executive branch.

One thing that I want to understand better is the female vote and Hillary Clinton. This was the most glaring difference between Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, Barack beat Clinton among women and in New Hampshire, Senator Clinton was the resounding choice of female voters. A lot of the pundits last night repeated over and over again that Hillary Clinton's crying incident clearly had an affect over the last 48 hours of the campaign. This morning, NPR spoke to some female voters that specifically cited that incident as a turning point for them.

Really? What's up with that?

I am not suggesting Clinton's crying moment was staged. I think it was sincere, actually. I related to her more, I guess. But, really? It caused a 15 point swing? Really? That easy?

Is Hillary Clinton's campaign strategy at this point to appeal to a sense of loyalty amongst female voters?

Would she decide ultimately to play up identity politics in the face of a rival, in Barack Obama, that has hinged his whole political persona as being the antithesis to identity politics?

Won't she ultimately lose with that type of message? Though, I guess we've learned the hard way that division helps some people win sometimes.

I also thought that calling Obama's inspirational campaign "false hopes" and saying his supporters are in need of a "reality check" would ultimately make Hillary and Bill Clinton look reactionary and spiteful. That may still happen if they decide to continue with those types of lines.

I have to go to work but I am looking forward for articles to emerge that place New Hampshire in a context more useful than, "wow, us mediafolk sure were taken for a ride."


Huck said...
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Huck said...
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Huck said...

Third times the charm! Let's see if I can get it right this time:

e - Here's something that offers an interesting insight, I think, to your wonderings:

bayoustjohndavid said...

She didn't exactly cry, and I suspect that obvious exaggeration contributed to the perception that Clinton bashers were piling on. BTW, Edwards is my first choice and I think that Obama might be the most electable of the big three, Clinton is easily my last choice of the Dems.

I couldn't predict the first District C (my district) election after I started blogging because I never went to the West Bank. I don't want to insult half the local blogosphere, but I can't understand all the attention to primaries in other parts of the country. Anyone who has strong feeling should make the pich for his/her candidate, but I don't we cn add much to the primary analysis. Too much that we don't see -- example.

jeffrey said...

I agree, David. It doesn't add anything. But I do it for fun anyway because that's just how I engage with the news. But now we're back to the point of why anyone blogs anything again.

I keep telling myself that I'm going to stop making actual predictions even while I keep writing about the primaries... but I don't think I can actually keep such a promise.

E said...

predictions are for fun. i won't stop. they're fun. i like making them.

bayoustjohndavid said...

I wasn't talking as much about the predictions as the lengthy analyses ans post-mortems. Hell, it bothered me when the T/P sent its one honest op-ed columnist to N.H. the week before the New Orleans city budget vote, consider it giving equal respect to bloggers. That might not be the best way to put it.

Anyway, my maint point was about the crying claim which makes Hillary bashers look dishonest and contributes to the backlash. And I do wish that everybody, even New Orleans bloggers, would stop contributing to anti-Hillary slander that actually makes her more likely to get the nomination.