Caucus Prediction Time

Big day for soap opera fans. This storyline has been tirelessly built since 2006. The first payoff is tonight.

Did you buy into the inevitability of Hillary Clinton's victory? Remember when she was considered unbeatable? It happened. Shame she just blasted through so many millions of dollars... because Iowa democrats are voting the anti-establishment ticket.

I never believed that invincibility bullsh*t. That never appeared to be the case to me. Nice narrative for the media to run with, though.

'90s Democrats are out.

Progressive populism is in.

Flannel is in.

Patterned zip-up hoodies are out.

When these turn out to be the results tonight, I will be happy happy:

1. Barack Obama: 40%
2. Jon Edwards: 33%
3. Hillary Clinton: 27%

I'm having a harder time handicapping the Republican race because Republican voters are... I just won't say anything.

For weeks, I've been going back and forth with Oyster and Jeffrey regarding this race. I've been saying again and again that Huckabee would be able to sustain his momentum enough to carry Iowa. I still believe that argument is compelling.

He is uniquely positioned as the grassroots populist Republican answer to the progressive movement that is threatening to unite Democrats on the other side.

Romney and Giuliani are actually quite similar candidates due to their position changes on a variety of social issues and they're support for and from the traditional bastions of economic and industrial neo-conservatism.

McCain holds down prudent, moderate lane. The thinking man's Republican, as it were. Still crazy, but seems less crazy.

I've been arguing that this would be enough, in spite of the traditional Republican thirst for a war-hawking type.... I thought that McCain would surge a little bit and I thought Romney would continue his collapse. Mostly, I thought Huckabee would take the caucus with surprising ease.

But Huckabee's recent MAJOR AND INEXCUSABLY EMBARRASSING gaffes on foreign policy, namely the idiotic statement he made last week about illegal immigration from Pakistan, have really poisoned his candidacy.

Thus, Romney has inexplicably regained ground in spite of the fact that he's Gordon Gekko with a creepy sweater. So the Republican race is going to be tighter than I initially thought.
Either way McCain is in great position. He'll be in third, I believe. He'll easily be able to spin third place as a big plus given how he's largely ignored campaigning in Iowa as he did in 2000. He's rocking in New Hampshire right now and blast ahead to a surprisingly easy victory there, riding the momentum and positive media attention from his better-than-anticipated Iowa showing.

Here we go:

1. Huckabee: 27%
2. Romney: 27%
3. McCain: 20%
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I don't think Obama is going to finish lower than first in a single primary until Nevada. I think he's going to get Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina before pundits even have the chance to find this blog to anoint me caucadomis.