Thursday, January 03, 2008

Caucus Prediction Time

Big day for soap opera fans. This storyline has been tirelessly built since 2006. The first payoff is tonight.

Did you buy into the inevitability of Hillary Clinton's victory? Remember when she was considered unbeatable? It happened. Shame she just blasted through so many millions of dollars... because Iowa democrats are voting the anti-establishment ticket.

I never believed that invincibility bullsh*t. That never appeared to be the case to me. Nice narrative for the media to run with, though.

'90s Democrats are out.

Progressive populism is in.

Flannel is in.

Patterned zip-up hoodies are out.

When these turn out to be the results tonight, I will be happy happy:

1. Barack Obama: 40%
2. Jon Edwards: 33%
3. Hillary Clinton: 27%

I'm having a harder time handicapping the Republican race because Republican voters are... I just won't say anything.

For weeks, I've been going back and forth with Oyster and Jeffrey regarding this race. I've been saying again and again that Huckabee would be able to sustain his momentum enough to carry Iowa. I still believe that argument is compelling.

He is uniquely positioned as the grassroots populist Republican answer to the progressive movement that is threatening to unite Democrats on the other side.

Romney and Giuliani are actually quite similar candidates due to their position changes on a variety of social issues and they're support for and from the traditional bastions of economic and industrial neo-conservatism.

McCain holds down prudent, moderate lane. The thinking man's Republican, as it were. Still crazy, but seems less crazy.

I've been arguing that this would be enough, in spite of the traditional Republican thirst for a war-hawking type.... I thought that McCain would surge a little bit and I thought Romney would continue his collapse. Mostly, I thought Huckabee would take the caucus with surprising ease.

But Huckabee's recent MAJOR AND INEXCUSABLY EMBARRASSING gaffes on foreign policy, namely the idiotic statement he made last week about illegal immigration from Pakistan, have really poisoned his candidacy.

Thus, Romney has inexplicably regained ground in spite of the fact that he's Gordon Gekko with a creepy sweater. So the Republican race is going to be tighter than I initially thought.
Either way McCain is in great position. He'll be in third, I believe. He'll easily be able to spin third place as a big plus given how he's largely ignored campaigning in Iowa as he did in 2000. He's rocking in New Hampshire right now and blast ahead to a surprisingly easy victory there, riding the momentum and positive media attention from his better-than-anticipated Iowa showing.

Here we go:

1. Huckabee: 27%
2. Romney: 27%
3. McCain: 20%
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I don't think Obama is going to finish lower than first in a single primary until Nevada. I think he's going to get Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina before pundits even have the chance to find this blog to anoint me caucadomis.

11 comments:

Ashley said...

"I don't think Obama is going to finish lower than first in a single primary until Nevada. "


I really hope you're wrong tonight. This is, whether he denies it or not, Edwards' last stand.

N. Hanks said...

WCBF -- You are the best!!! (Linked to The Hankster -- thanks!!)

E said...

no you're the best nancy...

i like edwards, i think if he's in second behind barack, he'll still be very competitive.

but don't be too bummed about obama as our next president...

ashley, do you really find him super objectionable? why?

oyster said...

Obama at FORTY?

McCain at TWENTY?

... pass the cheeba please.

jeffrey said...

I find him objectionable because I think he's wrong on health care, where he seems perfectly happy to continue allowing the insurance companies to write the rules, and wrong on social security, where he is content to parrot conservative talking points about how quickly it's going to go bankrupt.

Come to think of it, all of these candidates are pretty awful. I know there's a lot of hopeful Kool-Aid drinking out there among Democrats but, honestly, this is a pretty weak bunch. (Compared the the GOP candidates, they're golden but what does that really say?)

Hillary is just downright unacceptable altogether. And among the Big Three, Edwards comes the closest to putting together a decent platform... plus he actually deigns to mention New Orleans every once and again.

Don't get me wrong, I pretty much can't stand him either but... well there you have it.

N. Hanks said...

E -- Fantastic, really!!!! What a call! I'm almost more impressed with the fact that you nailed it (your Dem stats trump your Repub stats) as I am in the actual results! (plus, I won the bet on my team tonight using your prediction!!!) NOTHING'S inevitable...

What an interesting and exciting election!

Let's see what the independents do in New Hampshire to let the parties know they're not calling ALL the shots in this election!
NH

Ashley said...

I don't find Obama objectionable -- I was just saying that if Edwards came in with something like a weak third, he was toast.

E said...

Ashley, unfortunately for Edwards, even this second place finish doesn't leave him a whole lot of wiggle room.

He's going to have a hard time finishing even a strong third in New Hampshire.

After that, he may or may not try his luck in South Carolina... but I don't think he's got a whole lot of hope there either.

I like Mr. Edwards.

Would an Obama-Edwards ticket be totally stupid? Does Obama need to have a VP that can provide the experience balance that the media wants?

Ashley said...

Yeah, imagine a candidate running with a VP that is something other than a liability / insurance policy (Quayle, Vader).

E said...

me and a friend were trying to come up with the most viable running mate possibilities for obama based upon the theory that he and his advisers will seek to find an experience counter-balance.

we came up with:

evan bayh (maybe not because he's a hillary endorser)
wesley clark
jim webb
tim kaine (gov. of virginia)

i also through chuck hagel in the mix there but i don't know... we got pretty stuck after that.

anybody else got an idea?

i still kind of want it to be edwards.

C.J. said...

I write extensively on my own blog about Obama at

wantingtobealeaver.blogspot.com

(a shameless plug I know). It is a good thing that he didn't win this primary, because it would have set the bar too high. He will win though. The spotlight on a so called "front runner" is so bright that it can burn you up. Just ask Hillary, her campaign is ablaze and the whole world sees it.