Thursday, October 29, 2009

Clown Car: Some quick notes on the Mayor's race

School Board killer and yurp magnet Leslie Jacobs is almost guaranteed to announce her candidacy for Mayor, from what I've been hearing. She can self-finance, perhaps almost to the level that local monopoly man parody John Georges can.

Jacobs' likely entry into the race means that rumors of a possible reentry by Mitch Landrieu are untrue. Jacobs would not be doing focus groups and polls and taking possible campaign organizers out to lunch if she hadn't been personally assured by the Lieutenant Governor that he was not going to be running. Jacobs and Landrieu are deferentially close.

I generally agree with AZ's analysis that Jacobs might be wiser to take on Jay Batt in District A and also with the general point about how important catering ability is for a potential Mayor.

I have not heard any inkling, however, that Jacobs is considering anything less than a full-out run for Mayor. She was also recently seen at a GOP heavyweights for Jay Batt fundraiser.

Aaaand, I've just thrown up in my mouth a little bit.

I don't understand why Jacobs (or those that are personally close to her) think it is in her or her family's best interest to run for Mayor right now. Not only do I think she has little chance of winning but I also think she could potentially undermine her efforts outside and adjacent to government.

I'm told that her focus groups indicate that African American women are open-minded to her candidacy. I don't want to by cynical but I have never in my readings about the politics ever heard of gender trumping race in a municipal election, especially a municipality with the poor civil rights record that this one has.

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Former Judge Nadine Ramsey is actually running she says. I have seen two Nadine Ramsey bumper stickers so it must be true. Her climb is so steep - I have no idea why she's running or how she plans to compete financially.

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Troy Henry is also running kind of sort of I think. Troy Henry was President of United Water when United Water was gunning to get New Orleans to privatize the water board. Henry was in charge in Atlanta when that city actually did. That experiment failed in spectacular fashion amidst staff problems, financial issues, and multiple instances of water contamination. There were boil orders. Lots of them. Thankfully, New Orleans learned from Atlanta's mistake.

I'd like to know if Henry has had a change of heart about whether privatizing basic and critical municipal services is smart policy.

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Rep. Austin Badon has announced his exit from the Mayor's race and entrance into the race for District E. The pay raise likely made this office more palatable. I see no reason he won't take it easily though I am excited to see what seems at first glance to be a progressive challenge out of the Vietnamese community.

James Perry has announced a leave of absence from the Greater New Orleans Fair Housing Action Center so that he can concentrate on running for Mayor. Though he claimed a fund-raising victory for the last filing deadline, his new campaign staff is seems to be sucking up a huge share of whatever was taken in. I doubt they'll have enough money to invest in advertising. Will they have enough for yard signs or mailers?

I've seen some calls for volunteers but I'm not sure the extent to which those calls have been met. Is the Perry campaign planning on doing any organizing work? Have they been knocking on doors?

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see much evidence that the campaign has done anything to penetrate the electorate. An underdog won't win using traditional campaign tactics.

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Giant Ed Murray signs are proliferating like crazy. He's the front-runner until further notice.

25 comments:

jeffrey said...

I'm going to try to refrain from commenting on this race until all the candidates are in (or out) and we start getting closer to having public forums or debates.

I really thought Badon would have been the favorite but that turned out to be completely wrong... not that that's a bad thing.

Dambala said...

for buddha's sake at least comment on the Georges fundraiser article in BB. The whole time I was reading that, I kept envisioning you vomiting.

E, IF...Jacobs enters the race, she will kill any chance Georges has of making it to a run off. You heard it hear first. She will pull the majority of his base away. She's got a lot more traction than people realize.

jeffrey said...

Ok maybe. But I'm still trying to finish writing about two Saints games before they play another one.

G-FUNK said...

Haven't had a Republican mayor since 1856...as messed up as this city is and will continue to be under the status quo...I think its time for CHANGE.

E said...

Do I HAVE to comment on John Georges? I think my distaste for him and his gang of oligarchs is implicit.

G-FUNK said...

Finally something we can agree on - the utter tool-ish-ness of John Georges

Nouvelle said...

The only thing I'm proud of in our gov't is the schools. I've been in them pre and post-k and the changes are so profound that we're now leading the national reform effort.

That's what intrigues me about Jacobs. If she pulled us out of that quagmire, she may be able to deal with crime and some of our other serious problems. I don't think any other candidate has ever "fixed" anything like the things we need.

Anonymous said...

Hate him all you want, Georges has a pile of money. Way more than anyone in the race.

Anonymous said...

Leslie Jacobs didn't pull us out of any educational quagmire. The education system is still two tiered, just as it was before Katrina. People with limited access to good schools before Katrina still have limited access.The only tangible improvement is that some of the RSD charters are better off now than before. Only 3 RSD direct run schools have shown any improvement, and there are several RSD charters that are failing.

Not only that, but there is also no local control of RSD (they have quarterly BESE board mtgs in NOLA and so far there has only been one) which puts parents at a significant disadvantage when they have a complaint or a concern that goes unaddressed at the school level.

This reform people harp on and on about is a mirage. We've got more overage kids being socially promoted through middle and high school who don't have the skills to succeed in life, and if you don't get a spot at a charter school your kid is basically SOL.

If Leslie Jacobs runs with school reform as her platform any candidate with an informed advisor could pick it apart.

Genuine question: aside from education, what has Leslie Jacobs done? I only know of her from that realm.

Superdeformed said...

Ed Murray's great advantage is that he's so boring and forgettable.

Everyone else just pisses me off in at least some way.

Perry is almost interesting, but all I get from him is invites to fundraisers in the warehouse district on facebook.

Anonymous said...

Ramsey is in the race to help Georges, the logic being that she'll peel off the NOLA East vote and help him in the primary. You can thank Sherman Copelin for this neat little trick.

Anonymous said...

I love the "Ed Murray's boring" sentiment.

He has to be entertaining? Like card tricks? Let's get a ventriloquist as the next mayor.

If you're not voting for a candidate because they're "boring," please don't vote. Leave it to the adults.

Superdeformed said...

Way to miss my point Anon.

Murray being dull is an advantage because people in this state like to vote for characters usually. But this election is about vindication of a frustrated electorate, hence no one of any notoriety is running.

Georges just being well known will have people out to spite him as the blogosphere is right now.

Murray is marketable not because he's a career politician but because most people have not heard much about him and if they did they've most likely forgotten it, good or bad.

Dambala said...

Jacobs is in for mayor.

interesting stuff.

Anonymous said...

I think you should recalibrate your front-runner. Jacobs is going to the run-off.

Look out for Irving Mayfield. He's a real gamer. After running the libraries into the ground, he'll have a chance to run the city into the ground. LOLOL

Dambala said...

Jacobs is in run-off without a doubt...Georges just lost his base. Now it's a matter of who the AA candidate will be...contrary to E, I'm still not convinced that Perry can't pull it off. I just have a hard time seeing Murray gaining traction. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say, with the current field, it will be a Jacobs/Perry run off.

jeffrey said...

Alright alright just because Damabala threw that up there, I have to break a promise within the space of a single comment thread.

Runoff will be: Murray and Georges.

Anonymous said...

I'm with Jeff, it's Murray/Georges runoff.

Jacobs has zero support and will not be able to gain AA support. Perry has to learn that he is running for mayor of N.O. and not of the YURPs that moved here.

Dambala said...

I'll give you Murray....but I'm telling you right now Jacobs will fucking destroy Georges.

Anonymous said...

Would this gathered, hallowed band of wordsmiths please write something like this?:

---->>>>> Just how utterly depressing, sad, pathetic, disappointing, discouraging and absolutely, mind-numbingly dispiriting it is that this - *this* - is our current crop of mayoral candidates???

Would someone please write something on where we're going from here?

Because given:

> the insanity of tearing down ***a whole neighborhood**** (owned/snapped up by whom who knows) when we have a perfectly darn almost-good (if only Obama would have listened to the one guy who said anything about FEMA at his townhall) hospital shell across the street or failing that a half-empty CBD, the incredible record setting self-dealing revealed by AZ's Pulitzer worthy (no, not kidding, any disagreements that there may not be better muckraking municipal reporting going on in any US city anywhere today?) investigative revelations on CNO IT, the budget fiasco, the garbage contracts to Jimmmy Woods et al, Fradella/HSOA, the two Whites, T-Dub's emails, selling of city annexes and whole malls to the head of our RTA (who has no transportation experience), DC lawyer contracts approaching 1 mill, mal/non-functioning City Hall, etc., etc., etc. (really I have no idea how you keep up with it all)<.....

.... how in the heck do we have no one - and I mean NO ONE - who has offered any hope whatsoever that they will even try - much less believe in trying - to fix what needs to be fixed?

All this work, all this fighting to rebuild, all this recognition and reporting of what is wrong here - come on guys, how many of you started your blogs or really began to drive them just because of changing things post-Katrina.... and we have, what?

8 years more of the same trype?

Murray is in with Copeland, right? Same old.

Georges? Former business partners with Nagin (yes) and Roy Rodney (read Morial) more of same old, only samer and older.

Badon goes to replace CWL [shocked, really, are we?].

Perry - what?

Henry - who?

Ramsey - Why? [Oh there's a reason, you just don't know why yet]

Jacobs - In there to take someone else out, likely Georges.

Couhig - Really, Rob, do you think anyone's going to believe you *now*? "Hey let's oppose Nagin. Hey I believed in Nagin!" {???}

Eddie Sapir - Yeah, wait for it, it's coming, and there is no good purpose behind it, only nefarious ones, because that's how Eddie rolls. Also will be in it to take out Georges and distract 'Uptown' voters. Or something.

Would you guys please for once drop the cool irony [well, maybe not AZ, that guy's pretty damn direct], go ahead and get on the high horse for once, and actually just get behind something or someone that will help this town change, reform, move forward, something???????????

City manager proposition. Some candidate. A new party. Something. Because this is looking a lot like regression.

Now hat are you going to do about it?

With much appreciation. - sobieski

Dambala said...

- Now what are you going to do about it?

Pull a rabbit out of my ass? Hang on, I'll get right on it.

Bro, we are doing something, we've blogging our asses off for the past 3, 4...6 years.

What would you propose we do? I am just as bummed as you about the mayoral field but we can't wave a wand and make a good candidate enter the race. You're right though...this is regression...I think we will regress in many areas. I'm particularly worried about Batt in District A...that would be a very serious case of regression.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, late night venting.

-> But get ready for 8 more years of the last 8 years.

That plus Batt on the horizon is really, really depressing, yes.

Thanks for all your work, all of you. But goddamnit how do we break this cycle?

Anonymous said...

"Bro, we are doing something, we've blogging our asses off for the past 3, 4...6 years."

LOL.


No wait......


LOL, LOL

Let's try that again: "Bro, we are doing something, we've blogging our asses off for the past 3, 4...6 years."

Nope still hilarious.

Anonymous said...

What happened to Lefts's love affair with Perry? For months all I heard on these blogs is how the media was ignoring their man Perry. Unrequited love?

Anonymous said...

The left is starting to realize that James Perry is becoming Louisiana's Creigh Deeds:

A good potential candidate that lost/will lose because he is running a POOR campaign.