Thursday, September 24, 2009

Nobody 2010: We can sink into the gulf all by ourselves

Thank you very much.

As much as I had my fingers crossed for a 40-50 candidate brouhaha, it's starting to look like this might only have 2-4 candidates capable of raising the $300,000 needed to make the smallest of dents.

Here are the odds as I see them for what the runoff could look like:

Georges v. Murray - 3:1
Georges v. Badon - 7:1
Badon v. Murray - 30:1
Murray v. Sapir - 150:1
Sapir v. Badon - 250:1

All of these scenarios look ugly. I see dwindling prospects for whatever viable alternatives might exist in our collective imagination.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Former FBI head Jim Bernazanni might be announcing his candidacy from what people are saying.

Anonymous said...

Unless he has lived here as a resident for 5 years, he can't run.

Anonymous said...

no Perry?

Anonymous said...

seriously if Perry or Murray doesn't win, I'm leaving New Orleans. See ya.

why don't you look into Georges history of real estate scams. his name is being left out of the film studio articles but what they're not saying is that the deal was always going to implode because Georges had no intention of ever selling the property, that's his shtick. take the deposit and run! (or sit and smile)

E said...

Bernazanni is not eligible to serve as Mayor. The bizarre circumstances around his resignation from the FBI involved rumors of his interest in the race. Since then, he's been seen in Helena Moreno's corner.

Anonymous said...

Georges v. Murray 3-1 odds? Last November, 90,000 black voters showed up at the polls and only 50,000 whites. The myth of the white majority died. The Times-Picayune and the blogs have never mentioned these numbers, for good reason. That's why all the white candidates and their black heilings are pulling out--not becuase of lack of interest, but because they've seen the tracking polls.

So today I read that Georges bankrolled the "Wild About Harry" documentary that is an apolgia for the Harry Lee who is almost universally despised as a bigot in the black community. Deno Seder, the film maker, wrote a book of the same name that says Harry didn't have a racist bone in his body (a book paid for by Harry Lee). Since Georges would have to get all the white vote and 25-30% of the black vote, he does not stand a chance in hell.

New Orleans is going to get a black mayor, assessor, and majority black council. I'll give you 100-1 odds on that.

E said...

I think that anticipating a runoff between Georges and Murray is in sync both with the demographics numbers you cite and with the what the politics of the campaign are looking like.

Anonymous said...

In sync yes, but 3-1 odds in favor of "Wild About Harry" and a major donor to Stacy Head? What makes you think he can get 20-30% of the black vote with that record--not to speak of having just switched from the Republican Party? If you are going to play odds maker, at least tell us your rationale.

Jeffrey said...

The all-important question, can Perry beat what Boulet got in 06? I love James, and I really wished he would decide to run for Council at Large. I hear that Nolan Rollins is running for Council at Large, which would be great if it prevents Cynthia Willard-Lewis from being on the Council any longer.

What about a late-comer, or someone who previously declined could decide to re-enter the fray (ahem, Arnie)? Nagin didn't enter the race in 02 until December.

Also, Janis Lemle for Assessor. Unless my eyes and ears doth deceive me!

bayoustjohndavid said...

Chill out, anonymous, you're being belligerent for the sake of belligerent. Unless I'm either misreading your comments or E's post, you're questioning E's prediction that Georges will be elected, when E is only predicting that he'll make a runoff. If I'm mistaken about either, I apologize. I happen to share your contempt for georges, BTW.

In recent elections, black turnout has been higher in the runoff than in the general election (in other words, lower in the G.E,), but I still don't like Georges chances. I don't see Georges getting more than half of the white vote even if he's the only major white candidate. I think he'd have a hard time getting that. I think that at least half of the white voters will decide what candidate with a shot at winning they like best. I have no idea how much that's based on business leaders deciding who they can work with and how much of it's based on informed fellows telling people who's the most knowledgeable and corruption free -- not that the two aren't related. Maybe if Georges didn't have so many negatives (in addition to what anon said, he's totally lacking in charisma), enough enthusiasm for a Georges campaign would develop to put him in a runoff, but I don't see it. I see him getting 20% of the vote absolute tops, probably less, maybe much less. To do that well, he'd have to be the only serious white candidate.

I have no idea what kind of organization Murray and Badon both have, but, the one time I saw them together, Murray was the much more impressive candidate.

AVT said...

Jeffrey,

I think you mean Nolan Marshall, the president of YLC, not Nolan Rollins, the president of the Urban League, running for At-large.

Maybe Rollins is running, but I don't think so. Marshall is almost definitely running for At-large.

And I agree that Perry should run for Council. But good luck convincing his people of that.