Race to the Punchline 2010

Update: Vincent Sylvain's newsletter says Cynthia Willard-Lewis is going for one of the at-large seats on City Council. She has a good shot to win one of them, at least right now.


It's been almost a month since the last time we broke bread over the Mayoral race. You can check out the last line here.

Though the election is over a year from now, the campaigning has already begun.

My list of contenders should not be considered completely exhaustive. If you or someone you know is a candidate for Mayor, feel free to say so in the comments below.

First, the ground rules:

- Contenders are ranked from least likely to win to most likely to win.
- Individuals that have confirmed their candidacy or are known to be running will earn a better ranking than they otherwise might.

Now, enjoy:

Tier IV - Almost irrelevant

25. Eli Ackerman - Botox will be well worth it, people. Send in those checks.

24. John Georges - I hear he's not interested anymore. He can self-finance his own campaign so he'll move up if he changes his mind.

23. Emile Labat - Sylvain says this funeral director is definitely running. Nobody else has ever heard of him.

22. Rob Couhig - Talk show host has limited fan base and a host of divisive political positions. Does he run again?

21. Michael Cowen - Loyola administrator is apparently interested, but I don't see any compelling evidence that he's serious about winning. He's done some good work on racial dialogue but I haven't seen where he's been vocal about municipal policy. Have I just not been paying attention? I don't get it.

20. Virginia Boulet - Not sure if there's a compelling political rationale for her to run, she should probably be thinking about Council if she's still interested in elected office. It's hard to tell. Anyone heard from her lately? Maybe I've dropped her too far.

19. Ron Forman - I'm not sure the business crowd wants him to run.


Tier III - Window shopping

18. Troy C. Carter - Still dangerous because he somehow earns a few thousand votes every time he runs for office. I don't see how he raises the money it would take to really make a play. He should set his sights lower.

17. James Carter - Probably not going to run for Mayor, if he even decides to continue working in politics. I hear he's pretty fed-up. I've been frustrated with him at times but I don't want to see him quit. What about City Council at-large?

16. Austin Badon - The papers say he's interested but I don't see how anyone from the East mobilizes enough voters to make a go of it. If he's interested in municipal level politics, he should look at running for Willard-Lewis' seat. He's sold out on progressive issues like vouchers, so maybe he's looking to couch himself as some sort of independent centrist. He has precarious connections to the city's sanitation contractor elite. I don't trust this dude.

15. Eddie Sapir - Former Councilman wants back in for some reason. I don't really know where to put him. Hard to picture him running a citywide race, the rumor stoking seems like an ego exercise to me. Thoughts?

14. Cheryl Gray - I hear her name in connection with the Congressional seat often enough that it would lead me to believe she's more interested in that seat if she's at all curious about higher office. She did recently get engaged (congratulations), so she may be in the process of reevaluating her career goals.

13. Cedric Richmond - Probably more interested in Congress than in running for Mayor but it's hard to speculate as to what his next move should be. Curious for comment.

12. Cynthia Willard-Lewis - Unpopular Councilwoman has absolutely no chance but has been politically hemmed and needs to find a new job eventually. [Update: Running for Council at-large. She has a good chance to win one of the two seats available.]

11. Helena Moreno - She's a wild card. She needs a job right now, we're in a recession people.

10. Cynthia Hedge-Morrell - Unconfirmed interest. She might fair surprisingly well in a citywide race. Could she be mulling an at-large bid?


Tier II - Legitimate contenders

9. Roy Glapion Jr. - He's apparently curious and has a famous name. Could be dangerous later on if he raises money. Tough to handicap.

8. Ed Murray - He's really running but I don't see how he sneaks into the runoff given the rest of the field. Putting together a winning coalition is another thing entirely. I don't think he has much of a shot.

7. James Perry - Believe it. He's the only person running that has already built a campaign blueprint. He is surrounding himself with smart and motivated young people and has a rare command of the actual issues faced by the city. He's taking this very seriously and soon people will notice. Princeton professor and political pundit Melissa Harris-Lacewell already has, comparing Perry to her friend Barack Obama. So much for the advantage of stealth. Fundraising will be key early on, so will ensuring that other potential candidates who fit the 'progressive outsider' label decide to take a pass.

6. Jackie Clarkson - I know some people can't believe it but I keep on hearing that she's interested in running for Mayor. She has a strong geographic base and this fact scares me to death. The West Bank is going to have a lot of stroke in this election and I'm not sure there are many East Bank candidates that know how to campaign effectively on the other side of the river.

5. Irvin Mayfield - He's juggling an increasing number of political roles and seems very interested. He's been quietly cultivating political relationships but will still be able to run as an outsider. He has big name recognition and should be considered a threat in the fundraising department because of his national reputation.

4. Marlin Gusman - The more I think about it, the more viable his candidacy seems. His background "fighting crime" is going to be a big advantage that not many other people are going to be able to match. Plus, I've heard that the Nagin administration isn't particularly fond of Gusman, which could turn out to be an advantage, depending on how he structures his campaign.


Tier I - Early front runners

3. Mitch Landrieu - I get mixed signals about the potential for his candidacy. On one hand, the last race was brutal and if he loses again he's pretty much toast as a big time Louisiana politician. He could lose to Jindal in 2011 for Governor while still maintaining political respect, but another municipal loss and he'd be SOL. On the other hand, there are a lot of people in New Orleans that wish they could have a mulligan. Plus if he decides to run, he'd become the odds-on favorite, no? He'd certainly make the runoff. He's staying right where he is on the line for now.

1b. Arnie Fielkow - He's almost definitely going to run. He has had a knack for generating positive press for himself and he's going to be able to raise a ton of money. I wonder whether he can generate widespread appeal in the African American community if he's put under attack for being too close to the business community.

1a. Karen Carter-Peterson - She has maintained solid relationships with national Democrats who remember her fondly from her 2006 loss to Bill Jefferson. She also has good ties to the Obama team. It is improbable that she would take a pass on this and run for Congress again, because I think that would tick off some of her deferential allies. She's a formidable candidate for any office and I think it's safe to consider her an early top contender.

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What does everyone think?

Certainly there are some other names being whispered around town that are not listed. I've also purposefully left off many of the perpetual 1%ers like Quentin Brown and some more "serious" long-shots like Jimmy Fahrenholtz in order to keep this post at a reasonable length. However, it's important to continue to keep an eye on the peripheries. Any candidate capable of earning votes can swing this election. Feel free to submit some of those names in the comments section for future consideration.

Ranking the top ten or so this time around felt a lot less arbitrary than it did a month ago, I'm curious as to how other people might pick their top 10 and why.