On Third Thought

Let's look at some numbers:

Orleans Parish, December 9th 2006:

Jefferson: 23,218 51.30%
Not Jefferson: 22,044 48.70%

Orleans Parish, December 6th 2008:

Jefferson: 23,197 50.74%
Not Jefferson: 22,523 49.26%

Hmm. Remarkably similar. New Orleans has more full time residents now than in December, 2006 but maybe this indicates something about the upper bounds of Jefferson's post Katrina electoral base. Not buying the 'African Americans were confused' thing. If that were the case, Orleans would have gone by a much higher percentage to the Not Jefferson candidate, no?

Of the households that have returned to New Orleans in between the end of 2006 and the end of 2008, what percentage are African American and what percentage are white? An accurate estimation of that breakdown might help us establish some sort of test hypothesis for the vote totals to be expected from an off-day December runoff. I do find it curious that the anti-Jefferson vote was more or less the same as 2006, in terms of total cast and as a percentage.

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Jefferson Parish, December 9th 2006:

Jefferson: 11,935 70.61%
Not Jefferson: 4,967 29.39%

Jefferson Parish, December 6th 2008:

Jefferson: 8,099 38.34%
Not Jefferson: 13,027 61.66%

Sickening. The bosses over there have way too much power.

Also remarkable because it would seem that Jefferson Parish voters changed their mind between 2006 and 2008. Unless... maybe Bill Jefferson's supporters in Jefferson Parish were 'confused' about the election this year.

Update: Schroeder's got a more nuanced table of stats.