New Hampshire Primary Prediction Time

Could this be the return of Caucadomis? Or will that character evolve (apologies to Mike Huckabee) into a creature of yet even more sustainable powers of prediction?

Could this be nature's first Primaradomis?


The Democrats:

Obama's second act proves to have more fireworks, more beer, more boobs, more action. He's a star and there's no stopping him in New Hampshire.

Hillary's weekend was bad. Those tactics may have been effective if spread out over two weeks but she crammed in so much that it comes off as desperate. The attacks of Obama during the Saturday debate don't couple nicely with either Hillary's crying moment yesterday or Mark Penn's foot-in-mouth "Where's the Bounce?" email to Clinton supporters hours before polls were released showing quite a significant bounce for Obama after all. She's toast in New Hampshire and if Edwards had any kind of ground game in that state, he might have had a shot of passing her too.

I predict that Obama will be close to getting over 50% of the vote. If he breaks that barrier, there will be no denying the increasingly powerful movement coalescing around him.

Obama: 51%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 19%
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On the Republican side, John McCain seems to have played things perfectly. He is in great position. He's going to paste Mitt Romney, who should probably just save his money and drop out after tonight.

Mitthew Romney'll try one last time in Michigan, but it's quite clear that people don't like him. He's got a child molester quality about him that I don't think his advisers have addressed. I'm sorry but it's true.

Mike Huckabee will have his fingers crossed for a third place finish, but may not get it. He doesn't need to place in New Hampshire because nobody has any expectations of him there. If I were running his campaign, I would've skipped campaigning there entirely - just whisk him away to South Carolina, that's where his focus should be.

This is Ron Paul's best shot of sneaking into third, but I suspect that a lot of the independents that may have considered him have been swept up into the Obama wave. That would only leave the Paultards, that might not get him the 15% he'd need to maybe sneak into third.

The Republican race is extremely jumbled, Giuliani may have made the right choice in terms of just waiting out these early ones, given that they're going to leave the Republican field even more muddled than it was before a single vote was cast. He could still place third in New Hampshire, anyway. That would be a big victory for his campaign.

Alan Keyes will finish with 29 votes total. He'll stay in until the convention, I'm sure.

Here we go:

McCain: 38%
Romney: 25%
Huckabee: 12%
Giuliani: 12%
Paul: 7%

Primaradonis! CNN? Is that you? You'll have to hold for Hardball.

Feeling even better about my boldrock boldbama prediction as cnn is reporting that polling stations are getting record numbers and that they're running low on democratic ballots.