Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Hampshire Primary Prediction Time

Could this be the return of Caucadomis? Or will that character evolve (apologies to Mike Huckabee) into a creature of yet even more sustainable powers of prediction?

Could this be nature's first Primaradomis?

The Democrats:

Obama's second act proves to have more fireworks, more beer, more boobs, more action. He's a star and there's no stopping him in New Hampshire.

Hillary's weekend was bad. Those tactics may have been effective if spread out over two weeks but she crammed in so much that it comes off as desperate. The attacks of Obama during the Saturday debate don't couple nicely with either Hillary's crying moment yesterday or Mark Penn's foot-in-mouth "Where's the Bounce?" email to Clinton supporters hours before polls were released showing quite a significant bounce for Obama after all. She's toast in New Hampshire and if Edwards had any kind of ground game in that state, he might have had a shot of passing her too.

I predict that Obama will be close to getting over 50% of the vote. If he breaks that barrier, there will be no denying the increasingly powerful movement coalescing around him.

Obama: 51%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 19%

On the Republican side, John McCain seems to have played things perfectly. He is in great position. He's going to paste Mitt Romney, who should probably just save his money and drop out after tonight.

Mitthew Romney'll try one last time in Michigan, but it's quite clear that people don't like him. He's got a child molester quality about him that I don't think his advisers have addressed. I'm sorry but it's true.

Mike Huckabee will have his fingers crossed for a third place finish, but may not get it. He doesn't need to place in New Hampshire because nobody has any expectations of him there. If I were running his campaign, I would've skipped campaigning there entirely - just whisk him away to South Carolina, that's where his focus should be.

This is Ron Paul's best shot of sneaking into third, but I suspect that a lot of the independents that may have considered him have been swept up into the Obama wave. That would only leave the Paultards, that might not get him the 15% he'd need to maybe sneak into third.

The Republican race is extremely jumbled, Giuliani may have made the right choice in terms of just waiting out these early ones, given that they're going to leave the Republican field even more muddled than it was before a single vote was cast. He could still place third in New Hampshire, anyway. That would be a big victory for his campaign.

Alan Keyes will finish with 29 votes total. He'll stay in until the convention, I'm sure.

Here we go:

McCain: 38%
Romney: 25%
Huckabee: 12%
Giuliani: 12%
Paul: 7%

Primaradonis! CNN? Is that you? You'll have to hold for Hardball.

Feeling even better about my boldrock boldbama prediction as cnn is reporting that polling stations are getting record numbers and that they're running low on democratic ballots.


jeffrey said...

Nice try, Primaradomis, but I think now you might be guilty of a little too much enthusiasm this time. (I was going to say, "..a little too much Hope and Audacity" Aren't you glad I didn't?)

Yes, Obama takes this in a walk but 51%? Nah. Besides, Rasmussen had Edwards over 20% recently. I think Hillary could finish third again.

Like you, I think Paul has a chance for a strong showing, but unlike you, I think a good number of "undeclareds" will break for him instead of Obama who looks to have this sewn up. I also like Huckabee at 15%. And I think Mitt is toast. (Mittetoast?)

E said...

maybe jeffrey, maybe.

i was looking for a reason to pick edwards to come in second. i hope it happens. i didn't see any polls having him much over 15%. he worked for 4 years to get those votes in iowa. he doesn't have the same infrastructure in new hampshire...

i did see a number of outlets put obama in the high 40s potentially.

also the weather is really really good in new hampshire and they're talking already about high turnout. i know it's bold to put him over 50% but that's what we do at wecouldbefamous. we're bold. we're controversial, we're no holds barred.

jeffrey said...

I should say... I may be misremembering a national Rasmussen number. I can't find the one I thought I was citing. Still... I'm not changing my Hopeful push for a Hillary-in-third.

N. Hanks said...

yes the weather is good and independents are moving left.... E - I'll buy you a drink next time I see you if you're correct here!!!

N. Hanks said...

ps - linked to the hankster

Southern Leftist said...

They are running low on Democratic ballots because of two things: indy voter turnout (for Obama) and Republicans registering as Dems to vote for Obama. McCain is going to get taken out in NH by Obama, who is taking away McCain's indy support and even some of his Republican support. I still think this is a race primarily between McCain and Romney, no matter which of them wins first in NH. But Romney will squeak by by maybe a point or two to pull off 1st place. Huckabee may win South Carolina, but he is not going to do very well on Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday will be a 3 way race for the Republicans between Romney, McCain, and Giulliani. Romney and McCain are fighting for momentum heading into February 5th and whichever of them wins NH today will head into Super Tuesday with the momentum advantage.