The Confederate States of the GOP

I for one would LOVE to see this poll question tried out elsewhere, particularly in the rest of the South.

Toss Up!

If we do our part, we can pull of a surprise in Louisiana for Barack Obama!

A new poll has us within the margin of error.



I won't even look at that polls methodology because I don't care how inaccurate it might turn out to be. Just use it as inspiration and worry about it later.

The death of the GOP's rhetorical advantage or just a perfect storm?

UPDATE: Stupid Josh Marshall basically echoes my points - only more succinctly. Bastard.


Not to be presumptuous but it fairly reasonable to assume that Barack Obama will emerge as the President-elect of the United States in two weeks. The campaign certainly is not over but it is plenty appropriate to examine our evolving national discourse assuming a Democratic ascendancy that has been broadly demonstrated by polling.

The Nixon-Atwater-Rove model for GOP victory centered on the overall resonance of very familiar issues involving minority groups, their rights, and taxes. While long-deflected by Democrats as "wedge" issues, the genius of GOP message-makers was in weaving culturally divisive side issues into a broader political vision that allowed conservatives politicians to provoke reactionary and economically self-defeating voting behavior without doing so in such a way that offended the mainstream (media) borders on acceptable discourse.

For my money, the most concise discussion of the political history of the dissolution of the New Deal coalition and the ascendancy of the modern GOP is (and I think I've said this before) Chain Reaction by Thomas Edsall and Mary Edsall. In it, the Edsalls describe how the GOP seized upon white fears and frustrations as the civil rights movement radicalized in the mid and late 1960s by billing itself as the party of temperance and order in the face of cultural upheaval and increasingly militant demands for the expansion of rights and economic repair. As competing rights movements - women's, gay, Latino, etc. - flexed their muscles on the street and within the rapidly fracturing and inarticulate Democratic Party, the GOP effectively applied the fear inspired by sensational media coverage of direct action campaigns and the overall generational conflict to populist economic policies and the expansion of liberties sent down by Earl Warren's Supreme Court. The issue was not "big government" - it was that "big government" was perceived as only benefiting minority groups. While clearly this is a vast oversimplification of an extremely detailed history, consider some emblematic cases as the GOP monopoly evolved. Nixon's 1968 election on 'law and order' followed the urban civil unrest and the Warren Court's decision on Miranda rights. Reagan's ascendancy seized upon a history of symbolic welfare queens to popularize a supply-side economic approach in which Americans voted against their own financial interests. George H. W. Bush's exploitation of Willie Horton and other similarly coded issues such as the death penalty can be seen as contributing to his victory over Dukakis, who had been lead in the polls into August of that year. But really, by that time, the whole rhetorical package employed by the GOP had been fully developed.

Democrats largely failed to articulate their stances on different policies into an overarching political vision that ordinary citizens could digest and relate to when knowledge of the specifics of a particular issue were lacking. President Clinton was an exception, but part of his success derives from his willingness and ability to co-opt Republican rhetorical frames and policies into his own agenda, welfare reform being the most obvious example.

Concurrent to the development of entrenched GOP rhetorical superiority was the absolute medium dominance by television and the emergence of widespread infotainment-based reporting. Again, this is a vast oversimplification, but Rove was able to feed the television media a steady diet of image points while candidates Gore and Kerry failed to articulate a vision. In 2004 especially, Bush overcame seemingly long odds by using the threat of terrorism as a substance-less fear wedge while Rove built a strong turnout machine in key states by recalling the old anti special rights frame for state amendments banning gay marriage.

But what's happening this year? Is anything different?

Certainly, the last eight years of nearly absolute rule by the GOP has proven disastrous and the Democrats have nominated an inspiring candidate that has been able to advocate for center-left policies within an overarching progressive vision. But is it just Obama's eloquence and the stronger DNC organizing abilities that have brought us to this point? Is it just McCain's various shortcomings as a campaigner and the fractured GOP base that have given the Democratic message such a boost?

After watching this campaign unfold, I think it is reasonable to examine whether or not part of John McCain's problem is that the traditional GOP rhetorical vision no longer resonates with the electorate. Let us try to set some variables equal. Let us assume equal campaign coffers and generic Republican and Democratic candidates. That is, we should take race, age, and personal likability off of the table - because certainly those things are significant factors in this year's election. If we were able to control some of these other factors, would the traditional GOP tactics or vision gain traction with the electorate?

I don't believe so.

Let's examine a couple examples of traditional GOP tactics as employed in this election.

1. Bill Ayers

The McCain campaign has made Barack Obama's relationship with William Ayers a centerpiece of their campaign over the last few weeks. It's a very typical GOP-style smear: generic Democrats are soft on terror. One would imagine a much more powerful resonance with the American public in Obama's case because of the spread of various other-based lies regarding his racial/ethnic background and religious upbringing. Yet despite a truly enormous media push, the numbers demonstrate that the attack has fallen flat. This recent Fox poll indicates that only a third of the electorate has said that the Ayers connection makes a difference for them. In a recent ABC News and WaPo poll, 60 percent of respondents believed that the Ayers relationship was "not a legitimate issue."

2. Taxes

Polling data on whether or not Americans believe the Democratic nominee will raise taxes is striking. The Republicans have been able to go to the tax well for decades, applying the 'tax-and-spend' label to generic Democrats across the board, regardless of the fact that the GOP's tax cuts always went to the wealthy. Not so much now. This CBS poll found that more respondents believe it is more likely that John McCain will raise their taxes than Obama. Those polled by WSJ/NBC this week found Obama to be "better on taxes" by a 48% - 34% margin. A month ago, before the financial crisis, McCain still only had a marginal 41% - 37% advantage. And again, this is striking even accounting for Obama's charismatic appeal since the GOP has historically couched their opposition to progressive taxation in racially evocative terms and because Barack Obama is being very explicit about his intention to raise taxes on the wealthy. This week's McCain campaign line about Dems wanting to raise taxes on those who pay taxes to give breaks to those that don't pay taxes is good example of traditional GOP coupling of taxes to welfare and/or the myth of the willfully unemployed.

These examples work to illustrate the rejection of the traditional Republican tactics because McCain's team has invested incredible resources into these two attacks specifically, somewhat levelling the spending playing field on these two issues. Additionally, as I've said, Obama would seemingly be more susceptible to the tactics than a generic Democrat because of the racially-evocative foundation of these GOP strategies.


Finally, other key aspects of the traditional GOP argument against the Democrats seems not to be as potent as in past elections. After having widely exploited homophobia to boost turnout in 2004, gay-baiting seems to be only a peripheral tactic in localized elections where incumbent GOPers face surprisingly tough reelection battles in socially conservative districts. The generic anti big government pitch is less credible than it has been in forty years following the bailout of the financial sector. Railing against activist judges doesn't work now that the Supreme Court is largely conservative. The typical 'soft on crime' attack, demonstrated this week by a new Giuliani robo-call is less salient as introduced to the current political environment but may have been a more legitimate factor had it been a centerpiece of the McCain campaign all along.


Now certainly nothing laid out here represents conclusive evidence beyond a reasonable doubt. There is no way to separate the failure of the Republican message to resonate from the current set of political circumstances - Obama's unique campaign and the cartoonish failures of President Bush.

But I do see evidence that the conservative coalition's rhetorical vision has lost overall relevance regardless of the immediate economic crisis and the temporary Obama ad blitz.

Perhaps later this week, I'll explore why the traditional rhetorical GOP vision is failing.

Real Clear Politics Polling Aggregates Not To Be Trusted

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver from the must-read explains how Real Clear Politics is demonstrating a less-than-honest pro-McCain bias.

Useless

This article in the T-P about the priorities of Louisiana voters is a stinking pile because the polls on which the piece is based were poorly constructed and poorly worded. It made me mad. If I'm a politician or a consultant, there is not one conclusion or piece of data that I'd find informative or useful in any way. This sentence is particularly dismal:

Coming in last as a "very important issue" was global warming, considered "very important" by 41.3 percent of the 600 likely voters called between Aug. 20 and Aug. 24.

Ugh.

Just Seven Points Down In Louisiana?

ARG has conducted a poll in Louisiana that indicates that Barack Obama is somehow within striking distance: 50% for McCain to 43% for Barack Obama.

You can volunteer for Barack Obama right here in New Orleans, as I did yesterday morning, by heading over to 3604 Canal St. in Mid-City. The office is just really getting started so there is a lot of work to do.

If I were Barack Obama, I'd strongly consider a targeted ad-buy for the Gulf Coast that highlights my plan to build Category 5 levees and restore wetlands with a WPA-style service program.

What Does That Biden Guy Bring To The Ticket Anyway?

On the campaign trail only this kind of stuff:



That's at an event in Langhorne, Pennsylvania, which is in the Philadelphia Metro Area. Because much of the state of Delaware is in Philadelphia's expansive media market, if you live anywhere in Southeastern Pennsylvania and have paid any attention to the news over the last 30 years, you know Joe Biden and you probably like his attitude too. For instance, my parents were Biden supporters before they were Obama supporters. My dad - who I still catch mumbling about Reagan - hasn't been this excited about a Democratic nominee since, well...

I heard lots of Goopers talking about how Sarah Palin would help in Pennsylvania but everyone should just forget all that.

Pennsylvania will be voting for Barack Obama just as it voted for Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. That it is still considered a swing state by the mainstream press is almost amusing. When you look at the recent voting history in statewide elections (replacing Ridge with Rendell, replacing Santorum with Casey), the effectiveness of progressive reform efforts within the Democratic Party, demographic changes in the Philadelphia suburbs, and the seismic shift toward the Democrats in the state legislature, the Republicans would be wise to move on.

The last poll that showed McCain in the lead in Pennsylvania was one taken in April, just days after the contentious Democratic primary. Since then, every poll has yielded a lead for Barack Obama, many of them comfortably outside the margin of error.

So to recap:

Biden is the man and is going to give us great stuff on the campaign trail. He's going to help in Pennsylvania not just because he has roots in Scranton and gets media coverage in Philly but also because his speech patterns and, above all, attytood will always make him something of a darling native son.

Pennsylvania will be voting for Barack Obama by a very comfortable margin over John McCain and probably would have regardless of Joe Biden's role on the campaign trail.

For whatever reason, many prognosticators still consider Pennsylvania to be up for grabs.

Does Every Arizonaian Have Eight Houses?

On the night that McCain accepts the nomination from the RNC, Barack Obama should be holding a campaign event in McCain's backyard. And I might mean that literally because I'm sure there's some confusion as to how many acres McCain owns.


Obama would be wise to highlight the real housing crisis battering Sun Belt Arizona and it's residents. I predict that Arizona will soon be characterized by most prognosticators as 'too close to call' and I think Americans should pay attention to that.

Poll Perspective

Two recent polls have indicated that Barack Obama has opened up a sizable lead on John McCain, including this one from Newsweek originally considered to be a potential outlier.

When these polls showing double-digit leads for Obama are announced, it is always followed by responsible calls to remember that polls in June rarely reflect November results. Often, they remind me that Ross Perot lead in 1992 polls.

I think comparing this election to that which occurred 2004 is more useful.

When you look at Bush v. Kerry polls, the big lead for Obama in 2008 appears to be quite impressive. Between June 1st, 2004 and election day of that year, John Kerry never held a lead of over 8 points. Polls throughout this period also, at times, gave George Bush a sizeable lead. I have not yet seen a poll where McCain has been in front of Obama. (At least not since the beginning of June.)

UPDATE: Found that LATimes/Bloomberg poll giving Obama a 12 point lead over McCain. It confirms Newsweek's 15 point spread when Nader and Barr are included.